Zack Burdi prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zack Burdi P Oklahoma City Dodgers

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%23.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

SL-0.6

FB-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	0	38	154	51	19	3	0%	1.5	29.6%	15.6%	14.0%	2.0%	3.32	3.67	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	0	38	154	51	19	3	0%	1.5	33.1%	12.3%	20.8%	1.9%	3.32	2.94	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	29	0	33	151	51	16	2	0%	1.1	29.7%	11.1%	18.6%	1.3%	4.05	2.69	—
2017	22	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	29	0	33	151	51	16	2	0%	1.1	33.8%	10.6%	23.2%	1.3%	4.05	2.26	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	7	1	6	27	7	4	0	14%	0.9	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	0.0%	2.84	2.79	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	7	1	6	27	7	4	0	14%	0.9	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	0.0%	2.84	2.78	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	23	111	30	14	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.7%	5.3%	6.2%	6.75	6.69	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	23	111	30	14	5	0%	1.1	27.0%	12.6%	14.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.17	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	8	0	7	37	11	3	4	0%	0.9	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	10.8%	11.05	7.55	-0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	8	0	7	37	11	3	4	0%	0.9	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	10.8%	11.05	8.42	-0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	39	180	52	22	12	0%	1.1	30.2%	13.6%	16.6%	7.5%	6.28	6.38	-0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	39	180	52	22	12	0%	1.1	28.9%	12.2%	16.7%	6.7%	6.28	6.15	-0.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	2	13	53	12	10	0	20%	1.3	22.6%	18.9%	3.8%	0.0%	1.38	3.58	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	2	13	53	12	10	0	20%	1.3	22.6%	18.9%	3.8%	0.0%	1.38	3.56	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	98	26	12	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.5%	11.6%	4.2%	5.24	4.92	-0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	98	26	12	3	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.5%	11.6%	4.2%	5.24	4.92	-0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	22	98	26	12	3	0%	1.4	26.5%	12.2%	14.3%	3.1%	5.24	4.13	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	0	21	106	23	10	7	0%	1.2	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	6.6%	8.44	6.62	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.7%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.62	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	0	29	137	30	13	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	5.9%	7.44	5.67	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	0	200	955	209	91	56	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	5.9%	7.44	5.67	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		150	3	182	811	220	110	34	2%	1.2	27.1%	13.6%	13.5%	4.1%	4.90	4.80	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	3	200	893	242	121	37	2%	1.2	27.1%	13.6%	13.5%	4.1%	4.90	4.80	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Burdi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.3%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.62	22.9%	12.8%	20	+0.22	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	76
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	73
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	72
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	72
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	72
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	72
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	72
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	71
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	71
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	70
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	70
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	70
James Hoyt R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	24.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.269	4.63	22.1%	11.3%	92	+1.27	1.61	312	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.4%	9.7%	1.83	6.13
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Michael Feliz ('22)	1.2	50	29.9%	9.9%	1.55	5.29
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51