Yonny Chirinos

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

AAASPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MIX4 levels	13	8	33	3.51	3.40	20.0%	6.4%	0.6	K 18.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.69
2023	29	MIX2 levels	25	13	104	5.26	4.76	15.5%	7.7%	0.2	K 14.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.73
2024	30	MIX2 levels	27	27	141	4.22	4.17	19.0%	8.1%	1.2	K 16.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIA	25	25	165	4.55	4.58	20.4%	8.7%	0.6
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIA	23	23	150	4.66	4.79	19.6%	9.2%	0.0
2029PROJ	35	MLBMIA	21	21	135	4.93	5.12	18.6%	9.8%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs30

FB Velo29

Whiff%17

K%17

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Jarrett Grube (age 33) · Cory Riordan (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.58

K%20.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

SL+1.8 (39%)

SI (30%)

FB-15.6 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$12M
Totals		$12M		$0.2M	-$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	64	259	50	7	3	83%	5.4	14.0%	3.3%	10.7%	1.4%	2.10	3.10	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	64	259	50	7	3	83%	5.4	19.3%	2.7%	16.6%	1.2%	2.10	2.48	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	17	129	532	83	16	10	59%	4.4	12.1%	3.4%	8.7%	2.3%	3.36	3.76	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	17	129	532	83	16	10	59%	4.4	15.6%	3.0%	12.6%	1.9%	3.36	3.19	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	168	650	141	26	15	96%	6.2	18.9%	4.2%	14.6%	2.5%	2.73	3.43	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	168	650	141	26	15	96%	6.2	21.7%	4.0%	17.7%	2.3%	2.73	3.05	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	122	509	108	32	14	59%	4.5	20.4%	6.1%	14.4%	3.0%	3.90	3.80	+1.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	122	509	108	32	14	59%	4.5	21.2%	6.3%	14.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.61	+1.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	26	18	133	530	114	27	23	69%	5.1	21.5%	5.1%	16.4%	4.5%	3.85	4.38	+0.8
2019	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	26	18	133	530	114	27	23	69%	5.1	21.5%	5.1%	16.4%	4.3%	3.85	4.24	+1.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	3	3	11	52	10	4	2	100%	3.8	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	4.0%	2.38	4.62	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	3	3	11	52	10	4	2	100%	3.8	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.8%	2.38	4.69	+0.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	8	33	140	28	9	3	62%	2.6	18.2%	10.0%	8.2%	3.4%	3.51	4.69	+0.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	8	33	140	28	9	3	62%	2.6	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	2.1%	3.51	3.40	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	104	453	70	35	16	52%	4.2	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.26	4.73	+0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	104	453	70	35	16	52%	4.2	15.5%	7.7%	7.7%	3.5%	5.26	4.76	+0.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	16.9%	7.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.44	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	16.9%	7.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.44	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	44	356	1493	283	95	54	59%	4.8	19.0%	6.4%	12.6%	3.6%	4.22	4.28	+2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIA	25	25	165	697	142	61	22	100%	6.6	20.4%	8.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	150	634	124	59	22	100%	6.5	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	135	569	106	56	21	100%	6.4	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.22	-0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	150	633	124	58	21	100%	6.5	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.3%	4.66	4.79	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	135	570	106	56	20	100%	6.4	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.12	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	87	641	2696	513	209	95	74%	5.4	19.0%	7.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.47	4.41	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	27	200	841	160	65	30	74%	5.4	19.0%	7.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.47	4.41	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		189	138	907	3742	648	211	114	73%	4.8	17.3%	5.6%	11.7%	3.1%	3.64	4.03	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	30	200	825	143	46	25	73%	4.8	17.3%	5.6%	11.7%	3.1%	3.64	4.03	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yonny Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.4%	8.7%	3.1%	—	5.04	19.1%	9.6%	285	+0.46	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	82
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	71
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	70
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	68
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	67
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	66
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	65
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	61
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	61
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	61
Chris Leroux R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	13.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	1.83	266	59
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	58
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	57
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	56
Donovan Hand R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	12.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	305	56
Daniel McCutchen R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	10.8%	5.9%	3.3%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	476	56
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	55
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	115	19.3%	8.1%	1.36	4.52
Red Embree ('41-'49, 5 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.9%*	9.1%*	1.32*	4.29*
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52