Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 66 | 300 | 56 | 19 | 5 | 74% | 3.5 | 12.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 5.43 | 4.33 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 66 | 300 | 56 | 19 | 5 | 74% | 3.5 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 5.43 | 3.25 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 22 | 19 | 95 | 412 | 104 | 44 | 7 | 86% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 4.44 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 22 | 19 | 95 | 412 | 104 | 44 | 7 | 86% | 4.3 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 3.26 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 34 | 157 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 80% | 3.4 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 7.49 | 4.37 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 34 | 157 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 80% | 3.4 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 7.49 | 3.96 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 13 | 90 | 380 | 93 | 32 | 7 | 34% | 2.4 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 2.31 | 3.89 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 13 | 90 | 380 | 93 | 32 | 7 | 34% | 2.4 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 2.31 | 3.11 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 | 1 | 20 | 80 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 7% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 2.5% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 1.33 | 0.99 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 | 1 | 20 | 80 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 7% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 2.5% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 1.33 | 1.13 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 2 | 46 | 205 | 51 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 0.8 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 4.08 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 2 | 46 | 205 | 51 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 0.8 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 2.84 | 4.16 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 2.84 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 1 | 54 | 227 | 52 | 25 | 2 | 2% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 0.9% | 4.53 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 1 | 54 | 227 | 52 | 25 | 2 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 4.53 | 3.04 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 45 | 199 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.8% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 4.17 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 45 | 199 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.1% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 4.17 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 35 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 18.6% | -2.1% | 1.8% | 3.89 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 35 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 17.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.89 | 4.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 5.35 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 41 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 36 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 16.5% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.84 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 16.5% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 3 | 162 | 674 | 132 | 75 | 14 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 4 | 200 | 834 | 163 | 93 | 17 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 314 | 58 | 504 | 2208 | 396 | 232 | 46 | 18% | 1.6 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 23 | 200 | 876 | 157 | 92 | 18 | 18% | 1.6 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor González (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 18.1% | 15.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.70 | 17.0% | 0.7% | 108 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 72 |
| Bryan Harper L 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 70 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 70 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 13.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 134 | 70 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.67 | 23.5% | 22.4% | 1.3% | .301 | 4.11 | 32.8% | 16.9% | 99 | -0.56 | 3.10 | 205 | 69 |
| Braulio Lara L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 69 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 68 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 21.1% | 1.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 154 | 68 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 67 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 67 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 66 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 65 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 64 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 64 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 24.0% | 19.2% | 2.0% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 180 | 64 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.46 | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.3% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 101 | 63 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 63 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 62 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.14 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 299 | 62 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 17.4% | 16.1% | 1.08 | 5.26 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |