Garrett Williams prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Garrett Williams P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%23.6%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	3	1	7	27	5	3	0	33%	2.3	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	0.0%	2.57	2.94	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	3	1	7	27	5	3	0	33%	2.3	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	0.0%	2.57	2.96	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	97	424	96	35	3	89%	5.4	17.0%	9.7%	7.4%	0.9%	2.32	3.37	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	97	424	96	35	3	89%	5.4	22.6%	8.3%	14.4%	0.7%	2.32	2.61	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	15	82	408	73	60	6	45%	2.5	14.5%	16.2%	-1.7%	2.0%	6.06	5.04	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	15	82	408	73	60	6	45%	2.5	17.9%	14.7%	3.2%	1.5%	6.06	4.47	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	20	110	486	108	58	6	69%	3.8	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	1.7%	3.60	4.16	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	20	110	486	108	58	6	69%	3.8	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	1.2%	3.60	3.43	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	239	62	42	4	0%	1.4	22.1%	18.6%	3.5%	2.0%	5.40	4.68	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	239	62	42	4	0%	1.4	25.9%	17.6%	8.4%	1.7%	5.40	4.15	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	15	77	344	101	46	11	54%	2.8	24.9%	14.2%	10.7%	3.5%	5.73	4.71	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	15	77	344	101	46	11	54%	2.8	29.4%	13.4%	16.0%	3.2%	5.73	4.13	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	42	1	53	257	71	60	1	2%	1.3	23.8%	21.0%	2.7%	0.4%	5.13	3.99	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	42	1	53	257	71	60	1	2%	1.3	23.8%	21.0%	2.7%	0.4%	5.13	3.99	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	42	1	53	257	71	60	1	2%	1.3	27.6%	23.3%	4.3%	0.4%	5.13	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	14.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	OAK	30	0	32	134	31	20	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.97	5.06	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	OAK	11	0	12	51	12	7	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.97	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	11	7	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.97	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	120	34	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.97	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		190	68	477	2185	423	321	38	36%	2.5	19.4%	14.7%	4.7%	1.7%	4.45	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	29	200	916	178	135	16	36%	2.5	19.4%	14.7%	4.7%	1.7%	4.45	4.28	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	23.6%	14.8%	2.8%	—	5.06	23.1%	8.5%	32	+0.16	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	66
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	64
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	62
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	62
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	60
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	59
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	58
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	57
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	57
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	57
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	56
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	56
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	56
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	55
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	55
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	55
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	23.4%	14.7%	1.13	4.93
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27