Stephen Gonsalves

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 33 LHP 6'5" / 218 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	AAACHC	8	0	13	4.26	4.44	35.0%	18.3%	—	K 30.8% · BB 19.2% · FIP 4.96
2023	29	MIX4 levels	22	5	28	5.72	3.70	34.9%	17.5%	—	K 28.3% · BB 22.5% · FIP 4.38
2024	30	MIX2 levels	33	0	36	6.75	5.82	26.2%	23.5%	—	K 22.4% · BB 21.4% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	33	MLBCOL	27	27	165	4.92	4.88	21.8%	13.2%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCOL	1	1	8	5.01	5.12	21.0%	13.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBCOL	1	1	1	5.21	5.39	20.1%	13.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKwang Hyun Kim (age 33) · Luke Westphal (age 33) · Everett Teaford (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.92

FIP4.88

K%21.8%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD4555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1016.8%

p1013.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.411

FB+0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	134	542	132	53	4	100%	5.6	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	0.8%	2.01	3.45	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	134	542	132	53	4	100%	5.6	24.4%	9.8%	14.6%	0.7%	2.01	2.71	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	140	549	155	57	3	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	0.7%	2.06	3.06	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	140	549	155	57	3	100%	5.8	28.2%	10.4%	17.9%	0.5%	2.06	2.39	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	110	453	118	31	11	95%	5.5	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.9%	3.27	3.83	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	110	453	118	31	11	95%	5.5	26.0%	6.8%	19.2%	2.4%	3.27	3.10	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	26	145	609	136	87	10	87%	4.8	19.7%	14.9%	4.8%	2.0%	3.41	4.40	+0.8
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	26	145	609	136	87	10	87%	4.8	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	1.6%	3.41	3.92	+1.7
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	6	13	55	21	7	3	75%	1.6	38.2%	12.7%	25.5%	5.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	6	13	55	21	7	3	75%	1.6	38.2%	12.7%	25.5%	5.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	77	348	107	54	13	40%	3.1	27.5%	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	4.66	4.68	-0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	10	77	348	107	54	13	40%	3.1	30.7%	15.5%	15.2%	3.7%	4.66	4.61	-0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	8	0	13	60	21	11	2	0%	1.6	30.8%	19.2%	11.5%	3.7%	4.26	4.96	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	8	0	13	60	21	11	2	0%	1.6	35.0%	18.3%	16.7%	3.3%	4.26	4.44	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	5	28	126	44	22	3	23%	1.3	28.3%	22.5%	5.8%	1.5%	5.72	4.38	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	5	28	126	44	22	3	23%	1.3	34.9%	17.5%	17.5%	2.4%	5.72	3.70	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	36	183	48	43	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	21.4%	1.0%	2.3%	6.75	5.16	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	36	183	48	43	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	21.4%	1.0%	2.3%	6.75	5.16	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	36	183	48	43	5	0%	1.1	26.2%	23.5%	2.7%	2.7%	6.75	5.82	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	4	29	140	20	24	2	40%	2.9	14.3%	17.1%	-2.9%	1.4%	6.21	5.10	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	COL	27	27	165	697	152	92	20	100%	6.1	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.92	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	150	634	133	84	20	100%	6.0	21.0%	13.2%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	135	569	114	76	20	100%	6.1	20.1%	13.3%	6.7%	3.5%	5.21	5.39	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	COL	1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.0	21.0%	13.2%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	COL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	20.1%	13.3%	6.7%	3.5%	5.21	5.39	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	6	39	181	28	29	3	50%	3.2	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	1.8%	5.92	4.83	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		60	29	200	935	145	150	16	48%	3.3	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	1.8%	5.92	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		194	114	697	2925	651	393	56	59%	3.6	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	1.9%	3.28	3.98	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	33	200	839	187	113	16	59%	3.6	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	1.9%	3.28	3.98	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Gonsalves (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.8%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.25	20.5%	7.3%	285	+0.37	—	—	—
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	60
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	51
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	51
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	48
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	46
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	44
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	42
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	41
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	41
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	40
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	39
Pat Misch L 2015 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP-	3.94	11.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	38
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	37
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	37
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	36
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	35
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	33
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	33
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	32
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	120	20.6%	13.5%	1.17	5.11
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Rube Bressler ('14-'20, -0 WAR*)	2.7	108	20.4%*	11.2%*	1.07*	5.21*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*