Jesus Tinoco

P Miami Marlins

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 258 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	52	2	65	2.92	3.22	26.2%	10.3%	1.0	K 23.9% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.53
2024	29	MIX2 levels	53	0	69	3.54	2.90	28.4%	7.9%	1.4	K 26.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.02
2025	30	MLBMIA	20	0	19	5.12	3.82	12.5%	8.8%	0.2
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIA	53	0	56	4.15	4.24	22.6%	9.3%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBMIA	47	0	49	4.37	4.52	21.7%	9.7%	0.0
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBMIA	41	0	43	4.64	4.82	20.8%	10.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs68

FB Velo60

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsAngel Sánchez (age 33) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Brian Sanches (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.15

FIP4.24

K%22.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4045

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p1016.5%

p1012.5%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+2.2 (42%)

CH (15%)

SI (32%)

SL-1.2 (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	22	22	121	512	105	30	3	100%	5.5	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	0.7%	2.97	3.05	—
2015	20	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	22	22	121	512	105	30	3	100%	5.5	20.5%	5.9%	14.6%	0.6%	2.97	2.43	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	100	470	61	28	13	100%	5.0	9.7%	7.0%	2.6%	3.2%	6.86	4.90	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	100	470	61	28	13	100%	5.0	13.0%	6.0%	7.0%	2.8%	6.86	4.41	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	24	24	141	614	107	50	19	100%	5.9	13.4%	9.4%	4.1%	2.4%	4.67	4.48	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	24	24	141	614	107	50	19	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.67	4.40	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	26	26	141	598	132	38	23	100%	5.4	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.9%	4.79	4.60	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	26	26	141	598	132	38	23	100%	5.4	22.1%	6.4%	15.7%	3.8%	4.79	4.16	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	70	307	51	39	16	0%	1.3	15.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.7%	4.37	6.01	-1.2
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	70	307	51	39	16	0%	1.3	16.6%	12.7%	3.9%	5.2%	4.37	6.29	-1.4
2020	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	6	0	9	32	6	7	0	0%	1.4	18.8%	21.9%	-3.1%	0.0%	1.04	4.29	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	6	0	9	32	6	7	0	0%	1.4	18.8%	21.9%	-3.1%	0.0%	1.04	4.14	+0.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	55	260	58	28	9	5%	1.5	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	2.3%	6.67	4.05	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	55	260	58	28	9	5%	1.5	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.5%	6.67	4.64	-0.1
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	65	263	69	27	5	4%	1.2	23.9%	10.6%	13.3%	2.0%	2.92	3.53	+0.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	2	65	263	69	27	5	4%	1.2	26.2%	10.3%	16.0%	1.9%	2.92	3.22	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	69	278	79	22	6	0%	1.3	26.6%	7.5%	19.0%	2.2%	3.54	3.02	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	69	278	79	22	6	0%	1.3	26.6%	7.5%	19.0%	2.2%	3.54	3.02	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	69	278	79	22	6	0%	1.3	28.4%	7.9%	20.5%	2.2%	3.54	2.90	+1.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	0	19	80	10	7	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	8.8%	3.8%	1.3%	5.12	3.88	+0.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	0	19	80	10	7	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	8.8%	3.8%	1.3%	5.12	3.88	+0.2
2025	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	20	0	19	80	10	7	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	8.8%	3.8%	1.2%	5.12	3.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			100	2	127	529	104	57	21	2%	1.3	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	4.0%	3.98	4.96	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIA	53	0	56	236	53	22	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.15	4.24	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	52	218	47	21	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.52	+0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	MIA	45	0	47	198	41	20	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.64	4.82	-0.1
2030	35	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	178	35	19	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.6%	4.95	5.16	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	47	0	49	207	45	20	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.52	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	38	19	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.64	4.82	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	30	16	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.6%	4.95	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		222	2	255	1069	217	112	39	1%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.6%	4.30	4.70	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	2	200	840	171	88	31	1%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.6%	4.30	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		313	96	789	3414	566	300	89	31%	2.5	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.24	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	24	200	865	144	76	23	31%	2.5	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.24	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Tinoco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	22.6%	9.3%	2.7%	—	4.81	20.9%	10.7%	141	+0.57	—	—	—
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	67
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	67
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	65
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	65
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	64
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	64
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	63
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	63
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	62
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	62
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	61
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	60
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	60
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	60
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	60
Manny Barreda R 2021 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	20.1%	7.2%	1.9%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	376	60
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	46	20.7%	10.5%	1.33	4.29
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*