Elieser Hernández

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 214 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	15	6	44	4.06	4.14	23.6%	7.3%	0.2	K 20.9% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.43
2025	30	AAATOR	4	4	19	7.91	3.31	18.5%	8.6%	—	K 15.9% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.62
2026	31	MIX2 levels	30	12	97	4.35	4.64	21.5%	7.7%	-0.1	K 19.0% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	25	25	150	4.63	4.92	18.7%	7.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBATL	8	8	51	4.97	5.20	17.9%	7.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBATL	7	7	41	5.29	5.50	17.0%	8.1%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%76

K%62

FB Velo18

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Mike Burns (age 31) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.63

FIP4.92

K%18.7%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP150

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL4555

CMD4555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.259

CH+1.7 (18%)

SI (7%)

FB-1.1 (50%)

CT-3.4 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	7	46	199	46	11	3	70%	4.6	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	1.9%	3.94	3.52	—
2015	20	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	7	46	199	46	11	3	70%	4.6	23.1%	5.5%	17.6%	1.5%	3.94	2.66	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	108	473	107	35	14	79%	4.5	17.0%	8.6%	8.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.52	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	108	473	107	35	14	79%	4.5	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	3.0%	4.51	3.78	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	73	300	88	22	6	72%	4.1	21.6%	9.1%	12.4%	2.8%	3.68	3.99	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	13	73	300	88	22	6	72%	4.1	29.3%	7.3%	22.0%	2.0%	3.68	2.66	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	11	83	364	62	32	17	30%	2.3	15.8%	8.5%	7.4%	4.1%	5.18	5.07	-0.5
2018	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	11	83	364	62	32	17	30%	2.3	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	4.7%	5.18	5.42	-0.8
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	130	554	154	39	20	80%	4.3	26.3%	7.2%	19.1%	3.8%	3.59	3.87	+1.6
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	130	554	154	39	20	80%	4.3	27.8%	7.0%	20.8%	3.6%	3.59	3.63	+2.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	6	6	26	106	34	5	5	100%	4.3	32.1%	4.7%	27.4%	5.0%	3.16	3.71	+0.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	6	6	26	106	34	5	5	100%	4.3	32.1%	4.7%	27.4%	4.7%	3.16	3.57	+0.4
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	76	312	88	15	16	100%	4.5	26.9%	5.0%	21.9%	5.8%	3.69	4.63	+0.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	76	312	88	15	16	100%	4.5	28.2%	4.8%	23.4%	5.1%	3.69	4.12	+0.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	23	121	521	131	38	27	68%	3.6	23.3%	7.6%	15.8%	5.6%	5.19	5.14	-0.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	23	121	521	131	38	27	68%	3.6	25.1%	7.3%	17.9%	5.2%	5.19	4.77	+0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	4	9	42	12	4	2	50%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	2.89	4.51	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	4	9	42	12	4	2	50%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	2.89	4.60	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	6	44	178	42	13	7	40%	3.0	20.9%	6.9%	14.1%	4.1%	4.06	4.43	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	6	44	178	42	13	7	40%	3.0	20.9%	6.9%	14.1%	4.1%	4.06	4.43	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	6	44	178	42	13	7	40%	3.0	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	3.9%	4.06	4.14	+0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	19	81	15	7	1	100%	4.8	15.9%	7.8%	8.1%	1.6%	7.91	3.62	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	19	81	15	7	1	100%	4.8	15.9%	7.8%	8.1%	1.6%	7.91	3.62	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	19	81	15	7	1	100%	4.8	18.5%	8.6%	9.9%	1.2%	7.91	3.31	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	97	418	90	32	18	40%	3.2	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	4.7%	4.35	4.95	-0.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	97	418	90	32	18	40%	3.2	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	4.7%	4.35	4.95	-0.4
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	12	97	418	90	32	18	40%	3.2	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	4.3%	4.35	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	49	315	1363	298	97	76	47%	3.0	21.9%	7.1%	14.7%	5.6%	4.99	5.27	-2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ATL	25	25	150	633	119	45	24	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.2%	11.6%	3.8%	4.63	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	138	582	104	44	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	4.1%	4.97	5.20	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	530	90	43	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	4.4%	5.29	5.50	-0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	51	215	39	16	9	100%	6.4	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	4.1%	4.97	5.20	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	41	173	29	14	8	100%	5.9	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	4.4%	5.29	5.50	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	64	407	1748	365	127	92	54%	3.4	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	5.3%	5.02	5.16	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		59	32	200	860	180	62	45	54%	3.4	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	5.3%	5.02	5.16	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		233	146	833	3548	763	263	146	63%	3.6	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	4.1%	4.33	4.48	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	852	183	63	35	63%	3.6	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	4.1%	4.33	4.48	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elieser Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	18.7%	7.2%	3.8%	—	5.34	17.5%	9.6%	263	+0.42	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	72
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	67
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	65
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	60
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	60
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	60
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	59
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	58
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	57
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	57
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	57
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	56
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	55
Aaron Brooks R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	32	SP	4.38	15.8%	7.0%	3.1%	.332	4.45	14.2%	7.5%	245	+0.07	3.71	879	54
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	343	53
Bryan Evans R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	32	SP	3.89	18.7%	10.4%	1.9%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	231	53
Rob Wooten R 2017 · 5.15 FIP	32	SP	5.15	21.2%	4.9%	5.9%	.394	4.38	15.5%	12.5%	43	-0.77	2.48	253	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	91	19.6%	7.6%	1.84	4.97
Rube Schauer ('13-'17, -3 WAR*)	2.0	100	19.7%*	8.8%*	1.98*	5.37*
Bill Faul ('62-'70, -1 WAR*)	1.3	87	18.8%*	9.1%*	1.82*	5.41*
Lynn Nelson ('30-'40, -0 WAR*)	3.4	135	18.9%*	7.9%*	1.90*	4.87*
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00
Luke Prokopec ('02)	1.2	77	14.1%	7.3%	1.87	5.30
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15