Luis Castillo

P Chicago White Sox

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.2 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBSP40M40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	31	MLBSEA	30	30	175	3.64	3.73	24.3%	6.3%	2.5
2025	32	MLBSEA	32	32	181	3.54	3.73	21.7%	6.2%	2.6
2026	33	MLBCWS	29	23	131	5.85	4.84	18.9%	7.1%	0.1
2027PROJ	34	MLBCWS	20	20	120	4.46	4.55	21.0%	6.7%	0.5
2028PROJ	35	MLBCWS	22	22	129	4.75	4.92	20.1%	7.3%	0.0
2029PROJ	36	MLBCWS	19	19	114	5.07	5.29	19.0%	7.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service8.587First FA2028

2027Ext$24M2028Ext$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo60

Whiff%39

K%27

xwOBA vs25

CompsJose Contreras (age 34) · Merrill Kelly (age 34) · Masato Yoshii (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.46

FIP4.55

K%21.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP120

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$45M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SI (18%)

CH-1.8 (15%)

FB-2.2 (61%)

SL-2.4 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.587 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$24M	+0.5	$2M	-$22M
2028	Ext	$25M	—	—	—
Totals		$49M		$2M	-$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	1.2%	3.20	3.54	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	0.9%	3.20	2.75	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	15.3%	5.5%	9.9%	0.7%	2.26	2.87	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	0.6%	2.26	2.40	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	6.7%	17.5%	2.1%	2.86	3.08	+3.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	26.5%	6.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.86	2.99	+4.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	3.7%	4.30	4.00	+1.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	4.0%	4.30	4.15	+1.5
2019	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.6%	3.40	3.37	+3.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.40	3.47	+3.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.6%	3.21	2.44	+2.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.7%	3.21	2.51	+2.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.2%	3.98	3.40	+3.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.4%	3.98	3.50	+3.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.2%	7.3%	19.8%	2.2%	2.86	2.92	+4.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.7%	8.0%	19.7%	2.0%	2.86	2.86	+4.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.6%	3.34	3.64	+3.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.5%	3.34	3.58	+3.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.6%	3.64	3.79	+2.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.6%	3.64	3.79	+2.3
2024	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.5%	3.64	3.73	+2.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	3.54	3.78	+2.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	3.54	3.78	+2.4
2025	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.1%	3.54	3.73	+2.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	23	131	592	112	42	25	79%	4.5	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	5.85	4.68	+0.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	23	131	592	112	42	25	79%	4.5	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	5.85	4.68	+0.3
2026	33	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	29	23	131	592	112	42	25	79%	4.5	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	5.85	4.84	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			272	266	1541	6416	1605	487	199	98%	5.7	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	3.1%	3.75	3.64	+23.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	CWS	20	20	120	507	107	34	18	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.46	4.55	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	129	546	109	40	22	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	4.0%	4.71	4.88	+0.0
2029	36	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	114	483	92	38	21	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.9%	11.2%	4.3%	5.03	5.25	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	129	545	109	40	22	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	4.0%	4.75	4.92	+0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	114	481	92	38	21	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.9%	11.2%	4.4%	5.07	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	307	1785	7444	1806	565	242	98%	5.7	24.3%	7.6%	16.7%	3.3%	3.91	3.80	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	834	202	63	27	98%	5.7	24.3%	7.6%	16.7%	3.3%	3.91	3.80	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		350	323	1871	7744	1833	572	209	92%	5.3	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	828	196	61	22	92%	5.3	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.0%	6.7%	3.6%	—	5.05	19.6%	12.0%	244	+0.50	—	—	—
Jose Contreras R 2006 · 3.83 FIP	34	SP	3.83	16.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.277	4.08	14.7%	7.3%	442	+0.25	2.43	1,279	65
Merrill Kelly R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	34	SP	3.73	25.9%	9.6%	2.9%	.276	4.36	19.7%	12.0%	420	+0.63	3.60	1,170	63
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	63
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	58
Hiroki Kuroda R 2009 · 3.54 FIP	34	SP	3.54	17.9%	4.7%	2.5%	.270	3.43	19.1%	14.2%	618	-0.11	2.96	1,319	58
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	34	SP	3.74	21.5%	3.9%	3.6%	.270	4.44	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.70	3.19	884	56
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	45
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	44
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	43
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	41
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	41
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	39
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	37
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	37
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	37
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	36
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	35
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	35
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	35
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.5	147	24.0%	7.7%	1.27	3.94
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*
Mike Scott ('79-'91, 24 WAR*)	10.3	172	22.6%*	7.3%*	1.16*	4.25*
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Josh Beckett ('14)	10.3	146	22.2%	7.3%	1.04	3.88