Cristian Alvarado

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2018	23	A+BAL	26	26	155	4.18	3.60	18.2%	3.5%	—	K 14.0% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.90
2019	24	AABowie Baysox	40	0	74	2.66	3.13	23.8%	5.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.87
2026	31	MIX2 levels	21	0	28	4.88	3.21	29.8%	9.9%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.38
2027PROJ	32	MLBSF	1	1	9	4.96	4.96	17.6%	9.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBSF	1	1	7	5.05	5.15	17.7%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMarco Quevedo (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%17.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP9

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	5	3	27	101	20	0	1	60%	5.4	13.5%	0.0%	13.5%	1.4%	0.33	2.72	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	5	3	27	101	20	0	1	60%	5.4	19.8%	0.0%	19.8%	1.0%	0.33	2.10	—
2016	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	27	27	148	619	148	29	11	100%	5.5	17.7%	5.5%	12.2%	2.5%	3.41	3.67	—
2016	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	27	27	148	619	148	29	11	100%	5.5	23.9%	4.7%	19.2%	1.8%	3.41	2.65	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	26	25	140	608	109	21	16	96%	5.4	13.8%	4.0%	9.8%	2.7%	5.00	3.90	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	26	25	140	608	109	21	16	96%	5.4	17.9%	3.5%	14.5%	2.6%	5.00	3.48	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	26	26	155	653	119	23	19	100%	6.0	14.0%	4.1%	10.0%	2.7%	4.18	3.90	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	26	26	155	653	119	23	19	100%	6.0	18.2%	3.5%	14.7%	2.9%	4.18	3.60	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	40	0	74	294	70	17	7	0%	1.9	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	2.9%	2.66	3.87	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	40	0	74	294	70	17	7	0%	1.9	23.8%	5.8%	18.0%	2.4%	2.66	3.13	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	121	36	12	3	0%	1.3	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	4.1%	4.88	5.38	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	121	36	12	3	0%	1.3	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	4.1%	4.88	5.38	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	28	121	36	12	3	0%	1.3	29.8%	9.9%	19.8%	2.5%	4.88	3.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	SF	1	1	9	38	7	4	1	100%	9.0	17.6%	9.8%	7.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SF	3	3	20	84	15	9	3	100%	6.7	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	5.15	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	SF	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	5.15	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	7	31	5	3	1	100%	7.4	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	4.77	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	136	82	27	100%	7.3	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		145	81	572	2396	374	116	64	56%	3.9	15.6%	4.8%	10.8%	2.7%	3.84	3.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	28	200	837	131	40	22	56%	3.9	15.6%	4.8%	10.8%	2.7%	3.84	3.86	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	17.6%	9.8%	3.2%	—	5.15	17.7%	7.5%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	74
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	69
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	67
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	65
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	63
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	62
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	61
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	61
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	61
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	60
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	59
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	58
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	57
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	57
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	56
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	56