Drew Smith
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.17
FIP4.33
K%25.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p8631.0%
K%
p8729.1%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
SL+1.1 (12%)
SI (3%)
CU (8%)
FB (46%)
CH-0.6 (5%)
CT-2.5 (29%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.00 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 35 | 0 | 49 | 199 | 62 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.66 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 35 | 0 | 49 | 199 | 62 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.2% | 10.1% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 1.78 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 1.65 | 2.79 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 19.0% | 0.9% | 1.65 | 2.28 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 65 | 270 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.05 | 3.63 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 65 | 270 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 3.05 | 3.27 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 8 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.1% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 6.9% | 6.43 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 8 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.1% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 6.9% | 6.43 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 43 | 173 | 41 | 13 | 7 | 3% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 7.3% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 2.28 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 43 | 173 | 41 | 13 | 7 | 3% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 16.2% | 4.0% | 2.28 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 203 | 59 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 8.0% | 20.3% | 4.8% | 3.06 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 203 | 59 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 21.2% | 4.4% | 3.06 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 60 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 60 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.1% | 11.4% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.48 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.85 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 27 | 0 | 25 | 109 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 4.74 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 79 | 337 | 77 | 32 | 8 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 5 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 3.95 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.04 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.04 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 1 | 246 | 1032 | 253 | 95 | 37 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 4.14 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 1 | 200 | 840 | 206 | 77 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 332 | 2 | 381 | 1572 | 356 | 138 | 38 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.61 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 1 | 200 | 825 | 187 | 72 | 20 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.90 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 135 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 84 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 82 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 80 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 75 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 75 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 1.38 | 4.56 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |