Drew Smith
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.13
FIP4.29
xFIP4.23
SIERA3.65
K%24.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%14.6%
IP21
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4040
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p8631.0%
K%
p8729.1%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
SL+1.1 (12%)
SI (3%)
CU (8%)
FB (46%)
CH-0.6 (5%)
CT-2.5 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 35 | 0 | 49 | 199 | 62 | 20 | 0 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.66 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 42 | 0 | 60 | 232 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1.65 | 2.80 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 52 | 1 | 65 | 270 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 3.05 | 3.65 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 8 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 1 | 43 | 173 | 41 | 13 | 7 | 24.8% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.28 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 48 | 0 | 50 | 203 | 59 | 16 | 9 | 28.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.06 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 60 | 29 | 7 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 24 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 29.1% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.48 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 8 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIN | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 29 | 123 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 3.15 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 20 | — | 20 | 86 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 25.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 2 | 364 | 1496 | 344 | 132 | 37 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 2.97 | 3.62 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 1 | 200 | 822 | 189 | 73 | 20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 2.97 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.42 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 20 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 78 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 78 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 74 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 74 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 73 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 73 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.