Drew Smith — OGILVIE

Drew Smith P St. Paul Saints

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.16

FIP4.33

K%25.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p8729.1%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

SL+1.1 (12%)

SI (3%)

CU (8%)

FB (46%)

CH-0.6 (5%)

CT-2.5 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	1.7	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	1.7	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.00	—
2016	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	35	0	49	199	62	20	0	0%	1.4	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	0.0%	2.96	2.66	—
2016	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	35	0	49	199	62	20	0	0%	1.4	31.2%	10.1%	21.1%	0.0%	2.96	1.78	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	60	232	57	13	2	0%	1.4	19.5%	6.4%	13.0%	1.0%	1.65	2.81	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	60	232	57	13	2	0%	1.4	24.6%	5.6%	19.0%	0.9%	1.65	2.28	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	65	270	54	18	5	2%	1.2	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	2.1%	3.05	3.64	+0.7
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	65	270	54	18	5	2%	1.2	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	1.9%	3.05	3.27	+1.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	0	7	29	7	1	2	0%	0.9	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	6.9%	6.43	5.28	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	0	7	29	7	1	2	0%	0.9	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	6.9%	6.43	5.24	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	43	173	41	13	7	3%	1.4	24.8%	7.3%	17.6%	4.3%	2.28	4.26	+0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	43	173	41	13	7	3%	1.4	23.7%	7.5%	16.2%	4.0%	2.28	4.21	+0.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	50	203	59	16	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	8.0%	20.3%	4.8%	3.06	4.37	+0.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	50	203	59	16	9	0%	1.0	29.1%	7.9%	21.2%	4.4%	3.06	4.04	+0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	62	0	56	244	60	29	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	62	0	56	244	60	29	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.3
2023	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	62	0	56	244	60	29	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.13	+0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.48	+0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.48	+0.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.0%	3.97	3.85	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			191	1	196	824	202	72	29	1%	1.0	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.5%	3.48	4.06	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	14.5%	7.4%	7.0%	1.0%	4.74	3.37	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	14.5%	7.4%	7.0%	1.0%	4.74	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	MIN	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	17.4%	8.3%	9.2%	0.9%	4.74	3.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	50	209	52	22	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.61	-0.0
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	43	0	45	190	46	21	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.7%	4.72	4.91	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIN	38	0	40	171	39	20	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	4.1%	5.04	5.25	-0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIN	17	0	18	76	19	8	3	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.61	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	14	0	15	63	15	7	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.7%	4.72	4.91	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	11	46	11	5	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	4.1%	5.04	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		233	1	240	1010	247	92	36	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.3%	3.6%	3.70	4.15	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	1	200	840	206	77	30	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.3%	3.6%	3.70	4.15	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		332	2	381	1572	355	136	38	1%	1.1	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	2.4%	3.09	3.60	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	1	200	825	186	72	20	1%	1.1	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	2.4%	3.09	3.60	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	25.7%	10.2%	3.2%	—	4.90	24.0%	12.9%	135	+0.57	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	85
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	84
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	83
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	83
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	81
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	81
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	78
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	76
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	76
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75
Brad Boxberger R 2020 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	22.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.280	3.49	27.2%	17.5%	149	-1.16	3.01	363	75
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	75
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	24.5%	10.8%	1.38	4.55
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81