Matt Strahm

P Kansas City Royals

Age 35 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	32	MLBPHI	66	63	1.87	1.89	33.3%	4.2%	2.0
2025	33	MLBPHI	66	62	2.74	2.81	27.3%	7.4%	1.3
2026	34	MLBKC	41	36	7.32	6.89	18.6%	8.1%	-1.0
2027PROJ	35	MLBKC	44	46	4.18	4.66	23.1%	7.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ	36	MLBKC	38	40	4.69	5.03	22.1%	8.1%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs46

Whiff%35

K%25

FB Velo10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 35) · Hideki Okajima (age 34) · Brian Shouse (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.18

FIP4.66

K%23.1%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5055

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

SL+0.9 (28%)

CT (7%)

SI (15%)

FB (53%)

CH-2.1 (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	11	94	375	121	31	8	38%	3.2	24.5%	9.6%	14.9%	3.3%	2.59	4.08	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	11	94	375	121	31	8	38%	3.2	32.3%	8.3%	24.0%	2.1%	2.59	2.62	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	18	124	513	137	33	14	42%	2.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.9%	3.4%	3.04	3.91	+0.9
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	18	124	513	137	33	14	42%	2.9	26.7%	6.4%	20.3%	2.7%	3.04	3.16	+2.1
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	3	40	171	44	20	6	11%	1.4	24.0%	13.0%	11.0%	4.2%	4.76	5.03	-0.2
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	3	40	171	44	20	6	11%	1.4	25.7%	11.7%	14.0%	3.5%	4.76	4.36	+0.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	7	76	306	91	24	7	14%	1.5	28.4%	8.0%	20.4%	2.4%	2.14	3.03	+1.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	7	76	306	91	24	7	14%	1.5	29.7%	7.8%	21.9%	2.3%	2.14	2.85	+1.5
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	46	16	115	487	118	18	22	35%	2.5	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	4.4%	4.71	3.94	+0.8
2019	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	46	16	115	487	118	18	22	35%	2.5	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	4.5%	4.71	4.01	+0.7
2020	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	19	0	21	83	15	4	3	0%	1.1	18.1%	4.8%	13.3%	3.5%	2.61	4.12	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	19	0	21	83	15	4	3	0%	1.1	18.1%	4.8%	13.3%	3.6%	2.61	4.12	+0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	10	50	11	0	0	11%	1.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	5.23	1.24	+0.4
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	10	50	11	0	0	11%	1.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	5.23	0.97	+0.4
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	46	196	53	16	5	0%	0.9	26.9%	8.3%	18.7%	2.7%	3.74	3.33	+0.7
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	46	196	53	16	5	0%	0.9	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	2.6%	3.74	3.25	+0.7
2023	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	56	10	88	351	108	21	11	18%	1.6	30.8%	6.0%	24.8%	2.9%	3.29	2.86	+1.8
2023	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	56	10	88	351	108	21	11	18%	1.6	30.8%	6.0%	24.8%	3.1%	3.29	2.99	+1.6
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	63	237	79	10	4	0%	0.9	33.3%	4.2%	29.1%	1.6%	1.87	1.68	+2.2
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	63	237	79	10	4	0%	0.9	33.3%	4.2%	29.1%	1.6%	1.87	1.68	+2.2
2024	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	63	237	79	10	4	0%	0.9	33.3%	4.2%	29.1%	1.7%	1.87	1.89	+2.0
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	256	70	19	5	0%	0.9	27.3%	7.4%	19.9%	1.8%	2.74	2.73	+1.4
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	256	70	19	5	0%	0.9	27.3%	7.4%	19.9%	1.8%	2.74	2.73	+1.4
2025	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	256	70	19	5	0%	0.9	27.3%	7.4%	19.9%	2.0%	2.74	2.81	+1.3
2026	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	41	0	36	161	30	13	12	0%	0.9	18.6%	8.1%	10.6%	8.1%	7.32	6.97	-1.0
2026	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	41	0	36	161	30	13	12	0%	0.9	18.6%	8.1%	10.6%	8.1%	7.32	6.97	-1.0
2026	34	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	41	0	36	161	30	13	12	0%	0.9	18.6%	8.1%	10.6%	7.5%	7.32	6.89	-1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			436	35	553	2291	612	151	74	8%	1.3	26.7%	6.6%	20.1%	3.2%	3.61	3.45	+7.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	KC	44	0	46	194	45	15	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.5%	15.7%	4.0%	4.18	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	KC	39	0	40	171	38	14	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	4.4%	4.69	5.03	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	37	14	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	4.4%	4.69	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		475	35	594	2462	650	165	81	7%	1.2	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.3%	3.69	3.54	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	12	200	830	219	56	27	7%	1.3	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.3%	3.69	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		504	66	773	3186	820	219	106	13%	1.5	25.8%	6.9%	18.9%	3.3%	3.40	3.62	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	17	200	824	212	57	27	13%	1.5	25.8%	6.9%	18.9%	3.3%	3.40	3.62	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Strahm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.1%	7.5%	4.0%	—	5.03	22.1%	14.0%	40	+0.37	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	69
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	61
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	60
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	60
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	56
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	55
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	54
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	53
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	50
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	42
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	37
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	36
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	35
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	34
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	33
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	32
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	32
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	31
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	31
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	30

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	53	26.1%	7.2%	1.30	3.72
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
Jake McGee ('22)	2.9	48	26.0%	6.6%	1.10	3.71
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Bill Henry ('52-'69, 12 WAR*)	4.6	61	24.2%*	7.5%*	1.24*	3.56*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*