Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 36 | 166 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 73% | 3.3 | 10.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 7.43 | 3.49 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 36 | 166 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 73% | 3.3 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 7.43 | 3.21 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | 19 | 19 | 101 | 440 | 64 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 11.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.82 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | 19 | 19 | 101 | 440 | 64 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.36 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 30 | 3 | 64 | 276 | 60 | 19 | 3 | 10% | 2.1 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 3.94 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 30 | 3 | 64 | 276 | 60 | 19 | 3 | 10% | 2.1 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 1.1% | 3.94 | 2.73 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 4.72 | 2.82 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 7.2% | 20.3% | 1.0% | 4.72 | 2.20 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 63 | 280 | 54 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 4.31 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 63 | 280 | 54 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 3.81 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 165 | 33 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 14.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.70 | 6.22 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 165 | 33 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 5.70 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 44 | 0 | 53 | 231 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 3.40 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 44 | 0 | 53 | 231 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 1.3% | 3.40 | 3.35 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 50 | 0 | 53 | 261 | 61 | 42 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 16.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.44 | 6.43 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 50 | 0 | 53 | 261 | 61 | 42 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 16.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.44 | 6.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | SD | 33 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 5.98 | 4.45 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 0 | 200 | 898 | 157 | 66 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 5.98 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 272 | 30 | 455 | 2026 | 337 | 205 | 54 | 11% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 4.45 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 13 | 200 | 891 | 148 | 90 | 24 | 11% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eric Hanhold (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.85 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 31 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 77 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 1.28 | 4.69 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |