Justin Garza

P Syracuse Mets

Age 33 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	47	1	55	5.60	4.53	20.3%	11.8%	0.0	K 18.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.60
2024	30	MIX2 levels	39	0	55	3.60	3.32	26.8%	8.5%	—	K 22.9% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.67
2025	31	MIX2 levels	46	1	51	6.93	4.78	19.2%	8.0%	-0.1	K 17.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	33	MLBNYM	51	0	54	4.82	4.74	20.1%	8.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBNYM	3	0	3	4.91	5.00	19.5%	8.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.11	5.29	18.8%	9.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command45FB velo53

CompsFelipe Arredondo (age 32) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Mark Serrano (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.82

FIP4.74

K%20.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†5050

CT+1.5 (50%)

CH (3%)

SL-0.9 (9%)

FB-1.0 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	6	4	9	50	9	7	0	67%	1.5	12.2%	17.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	7.00	4.28	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	6	4	9	50	9	7	0	67%	1.5	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	0.0%	7.00	3.43	—
2017	23	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	8	96	424	86	46	12	31%	3.7	15.0%	12.8%	2.2%	3.3%	5.83	5.24	—
2017	23	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	8	96	424	86	46	12	31%	3.7	20.3%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	5.83	4.38	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	16	16	68	278	69	22	5	100%	4.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.3%	3.71	3.91	—
2018	24	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	16	16	68	278	69	22	5	100%	4.2	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	1.8%	3.71	3.00	—
2019	25	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	20	119	535	109	56	13	69%	4.1	15.7%	12.0%	3.7%	3.6%	4.99	5.26	—
2019	25	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	20	119	535	109	56	13	69%	4.1	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	2.4%	4.99	4.10	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	52	219	61	33	7	0%	1.5	26.3%	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	3.27	4.58	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	0	52	219	61	33	7	0%	1.5	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.27	4.40	+0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	37	0	43	174	50	18	6	0%	1.2	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.64	4.42	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	37	0	43	174	50	18	6	0%	1.2	28.7%	10.3%	18.4%	3.4%	4.64	3.85	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	55	246	50	29	7	2%	1.2	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	3.0%	5.60	4.60	-0.0
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	55	246	50	29	7	2%	1.2	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.8%	5.60	4.53	+0.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	22.9%	7.2%	15.7%	2.9%	3.60	3.67	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	22.9%	7.2%	15.7%	2.9%	3.60	3.67	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	26.8%	8.5%	18.3%	2.6%	3.60	3.32	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	17.6%	7.8%	9.7%	3.8%	6.93	4.72	-0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	17.6%	7.8%	9.7%	3.8%	6.93	4.72	-0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	4.0%	6.93	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	1	54	247	49	30	9	2%	1.2	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	3.6%	5.70	5.13	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	NYM	51	0	54	228	46	19	8	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.2%	11.8%	3.5%	4.82	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYM	46	0	49	206	40	18	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.7%	4.91	5.00	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYM	42	0	44	185	35	17	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.11	5.29	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYM	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.7%	4.91	5.00	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.11	5.29	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	1	57	260	52	31	9	2%	1.2	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.7%	5.66	4.95	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		162	4	200	916	183	109	32	2%	1.2	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.7%	5.66	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		282	50	547	2385	447	266	76	18%	1.9	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.68	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	18	200	872	163	97	28	18%	1.9	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.68	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Garza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.1%	8.2%	3.5%	—	5.14	19.2%	10.1%	92	+0.40	—	—	—
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	76
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	76
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	74
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	74
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	73
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	72
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	72
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	72
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	72
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	72
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	71
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	71
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	70
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	69
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	69
Brian Schlitter R 2019 · 4.40 FIP	33	SU	4.40	14.8%	6.3%	3.2%	.331	4.70	14.9%	5.8%	48	+0.30	3.27	300	68
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	68
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	19.6%	9.8%	1.43	5.14
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*