Justin Garza — OGILVIE

Justin Garza P Syracuse Mets

Age 32 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.92

FIP4.84

K%19.4%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

CT+1.5 (50%)

CH (3%)

SL-0.9 (9%)

FB-1.0 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	6	4	9	50	9	7	0	67%	1.5	12.2%	17.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	7.00	4.28	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	6	4	9	50	9	7	0	67%	1.5	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	0.0%	7.00	3.43	—
2017	23	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	8	96	424	86	46	12	31%	3.7	15.0%	12.8%	2.2%	3.3%	5.83	5.24	—
2017	23	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	8	96	424	86	46	12	31%	3.7	20.3%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	5.83	4.38	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	16	16	68	278	69	22	5	100%	4.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.3%	3.71	3.91	—
2018	24	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	16	16	68	278	69	22	5	100%	4.2	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	1.8%	3.71	3.00	—
2019	25	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	20	119	535	109	56	13	69%	4.1	15.7%	12.0%	3.7%	3.6%	4.99	5.26	—
2019	25	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	20	119	535	109	56	13	69%	4.1	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	2.4%	4.99	4.10	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	52	219	61	33	7	0%	1.5	26.3%	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	3.27	4.58	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	0	52	219	61	33	7	0%	1.5	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.27	4.40	+0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	37	0	43	174	50	18	6	0%	1.2	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.64	4.42	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	37	0	43	174	50	18	6	0%	1.2	28.7%	10.3%	18.4%	3.4%	4.64	3.85	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	55	246	50	29	7	2%	1.2	18.0%	11.1%	7.0%	3.0%	5.60	4.64	-0.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	55	246	50	29	7	2%	1.2	18.0%	11.1%	7.0%	3.0%	5.60	4.64	-0.1
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	55	246	50	29	7	2%	1.2	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.8%	5.60	4.53	+0.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	22.1%	7.2%	14.9%	2.9%	3.60	3.74	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	22.1%	7.2%	14.9%	2.9%	3.60	3.74	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	55	235	63	20	6	0%	1.4	26.8%	8.5%	18.3%	2.6%	3.60	3.32	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	16.9%	7.8%	9.1%	3.8%	6.93	4.77	-0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	16.9%	7.8%	9.1%	3.8%	6.93	4.77	-0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	51	224	43	18	9	2%	1.1	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	4.0%	6.93	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	1	54	247	49	30	9	2%	1.2	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	3.6%	5.70	5.13	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	NYM	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	3.5%	4.92	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	NYM	45	0	48	201	38	18	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.8%	4.98	5.06	-0.3
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYM	41	0	43	183	34	17	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	4.0%	5.16	5.31	-0.4
2027	33	MLB CTX	NYM	17	0	18	76	14	7	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.8%	4.98	5.06	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYM	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	4.0%	5.16	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	1	85	380	74	42	14	1%	1.2	19.4%	11.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.46	4.90	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	2	200	892	174	99	33	1%	1.2	19.4%	11.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.46	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		282	50	547	2385	443	266	76	18%	1.9	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	3.2%	4.92	4.70	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	18	200	872	162	97	28	18%	1.9	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	3.2%	4.92	4.70	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Garza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.4%	8.3%	3.5%	—	5.18	18.7%	9.6%	91	+0.34	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	71
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	71
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	71
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	70
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	70
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	70
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	70
Craig Stammen R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	32	SU	4.04	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.27	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.77	1.82	407	70
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	69
Brad Boxberger R 2020 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	22.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.280	3.49	27.2%	17.5%	149	-1.16	3.01	363	69
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	68
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	68
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.0%	8.9%	1.45	5.01
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50