Justin Garza
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.1
WAR
Age 32
RHP
5'10" / 170 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.72
FIP4.63
xFIP4.77
SIERA4.80
K%21.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p2618.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.420
CT+1.5 (50%)
CH (3%)
SL-0.9 (9%)
FB-1.0 (37%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians | 6 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 12.2% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 7.00 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 8 | 96 | 424 | 86 | 46 | 12 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.83 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 16 | 16 | 68 | 278 | 69 | 22 | 5 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.90 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 29 | 20 | 119 | 535 | 109 | 56 | 13 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 36 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 61 | 33 | 7 | 26.3% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 37 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 47 | 1 | 55 | 246 | 50 | 29 | 7 | 18.7% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 5.60 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 39 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.60 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 46 | 1 | 51 | 224 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 6.93 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 33 | 15 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 6.01 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 282 | 50 | 547 | 2385 | 450 | 274 | 76 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.71 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 18 | 200 | 872 | 165 | 100 | 28 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.71 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Garza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 3.6% | — | 5.00 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 101 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 73 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 73 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 72 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 72 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 72 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.50 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | .353 | 5.51 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.01 | 4.34 | 138 | 72 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.