Justin Garza
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 32
RHP
5'10" / 170 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 110
ERA4.91
FIP4.86
K%20.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+1.5 (50%)
CH (3%)
SL-0.9 (9%)
FB-1.0 (37%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians | 6 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 1.5 | 12.2% | 17.5% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 7.00 | 4.28 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians | 6 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 1.5 | 18.0% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 7.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 8 | 96 | 424 | 86 | 46 | 12 | 31% | 3.7 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.06 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 8 | 96 | 424 | 86 | 46 | 12 | 31% | 3.7 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 5.83 | 4.38 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 16 | 16 | 68 | 278 | 69 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 3.71 | 3.96 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 16 | 16 | 68 | 278 | 69 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 3.00 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 29 | 20 | 119 | 535 | 109 | 56 | 13 | 69% | 4.1 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.99 | 5.68 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 29 | 20 | 119 | 535 | 109 | 56 | 13 | 69% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.99 | 4.10 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 61 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 61 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.9% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 37 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.42 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 37 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 10.3% | 18.4% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 55 | 246 | 50 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.60 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 55 | 246 | 50 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 5.60 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 3.60 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.8% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 51 | 224 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 6.93 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 51 | 224 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 6.93 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 35 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 1 | 85 | 380 | 75 | 43 | 14 | 1% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 4.91 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 2 | 200 | 892 | 176 | 101 | 33 | 1% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 4.91 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 282 | 50 | 547 | 2385 | 450 | 274 | 78 | 18% | 1.9 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.75 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 18 | 200 | 872 | 164 | 100 | 28 | 18% | 1.9 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Garza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.4% | — | 5.20 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 91 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 73 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 71 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 70 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 69 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 69 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 69 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 365 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.42 | 5.02 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |