José Castillo

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 31 LHP 6'6" / 252 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	37	0	38	8.53	4.68	26.1%	14.1%	-0.1	K 23.2% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.65
2024	28	MIX2 levels	24	2	24	3.75	2.35	29.0%	9.0%	—	K 21.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.88
2025	29	MIX2 levels	44	0	48	3.19	3.16	24.9%	8.9%	0.8	K 23.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.21
2027PROJ	31	MLBBAL	49	0	51	4.26	4.34	21.9%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBBAL	43	0	45	4.46	4.59	21.3%	10.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBBAL	39	0	41	4.69	4.85	20.6%	10.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs47

K%36

FB Velo33

Whiff%31

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Edward Paredes (age 31) · Randy Flores (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 116

ERA4.26

FIP4.34

K%21.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

CH (3%)

SI (39%)

SL-2.3 (44%)

FB-3.5 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	27	116	16	16	2	100%	4.5	10.2%	16.3%	-6.1%	2.3%	4.00	5.54	—
2015	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	27	116	16	16	2	100%	4.5	13.8%	13.8%	0.0%	1.7%	4.00	4.66	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	35	151	42	9	1	0%	2.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.9%	2.06	2.72	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	35	151	42	9	1	0%	2.2	27.8%	6.0%	21.9%	0.7%	2.06	1.84	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	242	59	26	1	0%	1.2	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	0.0%	2.88	3.11	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	242	59	26	1	0%	1.2	24.4%	10.7%	13.6%	0.4%	2.88	2.62	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	65	259	91	21	4	0%	1.1	33.8%	9.2%	24.7%	1.4%	2.78	2.15	+1.9
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	65	259	91	21	4	0%	1.1	35.1%	8.1%	27.0%	1.5%	2.78	2.06	+1.9
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	2	9	36	20	3	2	20%	0.9	55.6%	8.3%	47.2%	5.6%	4.15	2.51	+0.2
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	2	9	36	20	3	2	20%	0.9	55.6%	8.3%	47.2%	5.6%	4.15	2.52	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	50	211	66	22	3	0%	1.0	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.07	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	50	211	66	22	3	0%	1.0	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	1.4%	2.72	2.56	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	38	184	48	26	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.1%	11.1%	3.6%	8.53	4.65	-0.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	38	184	48	26	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	3.3%	8.53	4.68	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	21.0%	7.3%	13.7%	1.1%	3.75	2.88	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	21.0%	7.3%	13.7%	1.1%	3.75	2.88	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	29.0%	9.0%	20.0%	1.0%	3.75	2.35	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	1.8%	3.19	3.21	+0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	1.8%	3.19	3.21	+0.8
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.9%	3.19	3.16	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	0	72	314	85	28	7	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	2.2%	4.11	3.17	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BAL	49	0	51	215	47	21	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.26	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BAL	45	0	47	199	42	20	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.59	-0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	BAL	41	0	43	182	38	19	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.85	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	BAL	43	0	45	190	40	19	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.59	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	BAL	39	0	41	173	36	18	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	0	158	676	161	65	18	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.7%	4.36	3.79	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	855	204	82	23	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.7%	4.36	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		292	10	351	1512	368	158	24	3%	1.2	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	1.6%	3.59	3.26	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	6	200	861	209	90	14	3%	1.2	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	1.6%	3.59	3.26	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	21.9%	9.7%	2.7%	—	4.71	20.9%	10.7%	90	+0.37	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	88
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	83
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	82
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	80
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	80
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	79
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	78
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	78
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	76
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	75
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	74
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	0.55	218	74
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	73
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	72
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	71
Mike Myers L 2000 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	23.2%	11.9%	1.1%	.195	3.81	17.3%	6.8%	113	+0.54	3.22	533	71
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	71
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	169	71
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	23.3%	9.9%	1.05	4.34
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Will Ohman ('12)	1.8	50	21.8%	10.3%	1.07	4.28
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*