Pedro Fernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Pedro Fernandez P Nashville Sounds

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%19.7%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	471	114	35	4	80%	4.4	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	1.2%	4.80	3.33	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	111	471	114	35	4	80%	4.4	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	0.8%	4.80	2.46	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	258	50	20	2	79%	4.5	15.2%	8.7%	6.5%	1.0%	3.02	3.45	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	63	258	50	20	2	79%	4.5	19.4%	7.8%	11.6%	0.8%	3.02	2.88	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	3	77	318	67	23	4	8%	2.0	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	1.4%	3.16	3.40	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	3	77	318	67	23	4	8%	2.0	21.1%	7.2%	13.8%	1.3%	3.16	2.93	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	67	284	49	20	3	9%	2.1	14.6%	6.4%	8.1%	1.0%	3.38	3.23	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	3	67	284	49	20	3	9%	2.1	17.3%	7.0%	10.2%	1.1%	3.38	3.12	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Algodoneros Union Laguna	13	5	33	158	18	10	12	38%	2.5	10.0%	6.6%	3.4%	8.1%	8.27	7.55	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Algodoneros Union Laguna	13	5	33	158	18	10	12	38%	2.5	11.4%	6.3%	5.1%	7.6%	8.27	7.69	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	21	10	67	290	57	28	14	48%	3.2	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	5.9%	4.05	5.99	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	21	10	67	290	57	28	14	48%	3.2	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	5.9%	4.05	5.99	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	21	10	67	290	57	28	14	48%	3.2	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	4.8%	4.05	5.38	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	8.9%	10.7%	3.3%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIL	37	0	39	166	32	16	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIL	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	12	6	2	0%	1.0	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	83	28	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		144	52	416	1779	286	142	45	36%	2.9	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	25	200	855	137	68	22	36%	2.9	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.7%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.95	19.5%	10.1%	39	+0.21	—	—	—
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	72
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	72
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	69
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	67
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	66
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	66
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	65
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	65
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	63
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	63
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	19.6%	9.2%	1.31	4.79
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78