Erick Leal — OGILVIE

Erick Leal P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%19.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	23	129	551	86	32	11	100%	5.6	11.5%	6.9%	4.7%	2.4%	3.85	4.33	—
2015	20	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	23	23	129	551	86	32	11	100%	5.6	15.6%	5.8%	9.8%	2.0%	3.85	3.62	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	98	404	71	23	5	90%	4.7	12.9%	6.4%	6.5%	1.2%	3.13	3.49	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	98	404	71	23	5	90%	4.7	17.6%	5.7%	11.9%	1.2%	3.13	3.02	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	8	64	244	61	17	2	38%	3.0	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	1.1%	1.41	3.09	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	8	64	244	61	17	2	38%	3.0	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	0.8%	1.41	2.39	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	85	377	87	36	8	94%	5.0	18.3%	10.7%	7.7%	2.4%	5.21	4.24	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	85	377	87	36	8	94%	5.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.5%	2.1%	5.21	3.55	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	28	26	127	557	133	58	28	93%	4.5	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	5.2%	5.61	5.45	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	28	26	127	557	133	58	28	93%	4.5	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	5.2%	5.61	5.45	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	28	26	127	557	133	58	28	93%	4.5	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	5.0%	5.61	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	NYY	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	4.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	138	581	114	57	25	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	4.3%	5.32	5.41	-0.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	533	103	54	24	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.2%	4.5%	5.44	5.57	-0.9
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	42	21	9	100%	6.4	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	4.3%	5.32	5.41	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	70	296	57	30	13	100%	5.8	19.4%	10.1%	9.2%	4.5%	5.44	5.57	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	120	507	99	51	22	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	4.4%	5.39	5.12	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	85	37	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	4.4%	5.39	5.12	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		110	92	501	2133	342	176	59	84%	4.6	16.1%	8.2%	7.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.31	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	851	137	70	24	84%	4.6	16.1%	8.2%	7.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.31	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Leal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	19.9%	9.6%	4.1%	—	5.49	19.5%	9.6%	264	+0.20	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	77
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	75
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	74
Matt Garza R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	31	SP	4.61	15.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.315	4.30	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.31	4.00	365	74
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	72
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	71
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	71
Marco Estrada R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP-	4.32	18.1%	7.3%	3.3%	.213	4.55	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.23	4.04	710	70
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	70
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	70
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	70
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	70
Justin De Fratus R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP	4.90	13.3%	6.4%	3.8%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	500	69
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	68
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.27	283	68
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	68
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	67
David Martinez R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	29	SP	4.88	15.0%	8.2%	3.7%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	67
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	67
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	137	19.7%	9.8%	1.66	5.35
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47