Erick Leal
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 147 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 119
ERA5.28
FIP5.28
K%21.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP148
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 23 | 129 | 551 | 86 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 11.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 3.85 | 4.26 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 23 | 129 | 551 | 86 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 3.85 | 3.62 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 98 | 404 | 71 | 23 | 5 | 90% | 4.7 | 12.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 1.0% | 3.13 | 3.36 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 98 | 404 | 71 | 23 | 5 | 90% | 4.7 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 3.13 | 3.02 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 21 | 8 | 64 | 244 | 61 | 17 | 2 | 38% | 3.0 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 1.41 | 3.14 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 21 | 8 | 64 | 244 | 61 | 17 | 2 | 38% | 3.0 | 25.0% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 0.8% | 1.41 | 2.39 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 85 | 377 | 87 | 36 | 8 | 94% | 5.0 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 5.21 | 4.18 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 85 | 377 | 87 | 36 | 8 | 94% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 5.21 | 3.55 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 28 | 26 | 127 | 557 | 133 | 58 | 28 | 93% | 4.5 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 5.61 | 5.37 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 28 | 26 | 127 | 557 | 133 | 58 | 28 | 93% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 5.0% | 5.61 | 5.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 149 | 628 | 132 | 70 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 120 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 126 | 533 | 108 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 115 | 485 | 96 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.61 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 45 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.61 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 178 | 753 | 153 | 86 | 33 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 97 | 37 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 110 | 92 | 501 | 2133 | 349 | 184 | 55 | 84% | 4.6 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.24 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 851 | 139 | 74 | 22 | 84% | 4.6 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erick Leal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 4.0% | — | 5.58 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 378 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 79 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 77 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 75 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 74 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 72 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 72 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 72 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 71 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.90 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.44 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.46 | 3.77 | 786 | 70 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 69 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.80 | 15.4% | 4.3% | 35 | +1.69 | 2.82 | 449 | 69 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 68 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 68 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 67 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 67 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 67 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 66 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.13 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 4.81 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 510 | +0.68 | 3.72 | 918 | 66 |
| Cody Mincey R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 132 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 1.63 | 5.40 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |