Silvino Bracho prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Silvino Bracho P Louisville Bats

Age 34 RHP 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.49

FIP4.53

K%23.3%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p9031.6%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

FB+1.7

CH-0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	63	247	90	12	5	0%	1.1	28.5%	5.2%	23.3%	2.3%	1.57	2.62	+1.5
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	0	63	247	90	12	5	0%	1.1	36.4%	4.9%	31.6%	2.0%	1.57	1.85	+2.1
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	58	263	60	17	9	0%	0.9	20.9%	6.6%	14.2%	3.4%	5.86	4.04	+0.3
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	58	263	60	17	9	0%	0.9	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	3.4%	5.86	3.92	+0.4
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	56	232	73	23	13	0%	1.0	29.0%	10.3%	18.7%	5.8%	4.66	5.12	-0.4
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	56	232	73	23	13	0%	1.0	31.5%	9.9%	21.6%	5.6%	4.66	4.74	-0.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	65	275	86	18	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	6.7%	22.3%	1.9%	3.86	2.55	+1.6
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	65	275	86	18	5	0%	1.1	31.3%	6.5%	24.7%	1.8%	3.86	2.29	+1.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	18.00	12.39	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	18.00	14.10	-0.1
2021	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	49	0	50	224	65	16	10	0%	1.0	25.5%	7.5%	18.0%	4.9%	4.14	4.60	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	49	0	50	224	65	16	10	0%	1.0	29.0%	7.1%	21.9%	4.5%	4.14	4.06	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	62	248	74	11	6	12%	1.5	26.8%	4.6%	22.2%	2.0%	2.92	2.49	+1.5
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	5	62	248	74	11	6	12%	1.5	29.8%	4.4%	25.4%	2.4%	2.92	2.50	+1.5
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	58	248	58	26	18	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.3%	12.3%	8.7%	5.28	7.16	-1.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	58	248	58	26	18	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.3%	12.3%	8.7%	5.28	7.16	-1.8
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	58	248	58	26	18	2%	1.1	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	7.3%	5.28	6.48	-1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			100	0	101	439	104	36	19	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	4.3%	4.80	4.55	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.49	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	56	235	52	23	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.87	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	CIN	47	0	49	208	44	21	9	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	4.1%	5.03	5.24	-0.4
2029	37	MLB MLE	CIN	41	0	43	181	37	20	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	4.5%	5.39	5.64	-0.5
2027	35	MLB CTX	CIN	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.87	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	4.1%	5.03	5.24	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	4.5%	5.39	5.64	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	0	104	452	107	37	19	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	4.3%	4.79	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	0	200	866	205	71	36	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	4.3%	4.79	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		373	6	413	1742	448	121	72	2%	1.1	25.7%	7.0%	18.8%	4.1%	4.03	4.07	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	3	200	843	217	59	35	2%	1.1	25.7%	7.0%	18.8%	4.1%	4.03	4.07	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Silvino Bracho (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	23.3%	9.1%	3.4%	—	5.22	21.4%	11.1%	148	+0.69	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	82
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	77
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	76
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	74
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	73
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	73
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	71
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	71
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	70
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	69
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	66
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	66
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	44	22.5%	9.7%	1.56	4.84
Heath Hembree ('23)	1.8	51	25.4%	9.4%	1.67	4.37
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04