Luke Farrell prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luke Farrell P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.69

K%20.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1017.3%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

FB-1.2

SL-1.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	123	514	106	35	7	73%	4.7	16.4%	7.5%	8.8%	1.8%	3.07	3.69	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	123	514	106	35	7	73%	4.7	20.6%	6.8%	13.8%	1.4%	3.07	2.97	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	98	418	90	43	12	67%	4.7	17.6%	10.8%	6.8%	3.2%	3.59	4.74	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	98	418	90	43	12	67%	4.7	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.9%	3.59	4.18	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	21	130	559	126	56	17	66%	4.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.47	+0.7
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	21	130	559	126	56	17	66%	4.1	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.16	+1.1
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	86	372	100	42	11	44%	2.7	24.9%	11.7%	13.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.25	+0.3
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	14	86	372	100	42	11	44%	2.7	26.9%	11.3%	15.6%	3.0%	4.20	3.91	+0.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	5	27	107	34	8	3	28%	1.5	31.8%	7.5%	24.3%	2.8%	3.29	2.90	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	5	27	107	34	8	3	28%	1.5	31.8%	7.5%	24.3%	2.8%	3.29	2.92	+0.5
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	4	0	5	27	8	5	1	0%	1.3	29.6%	18.5%	11.1%	3.7%	8.44	4.98	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	4	0	5	27	8	5	1	0%	1.3	29.6%	18.5%	11.1%	3.7%	8.44	5.35	-0.0
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	153	41	19	4	4%	1.2	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	3.5%	4.54	4.62	-0.0
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	34	153	41	19	4	4%	1.2	26.8%	12.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.54	3.90	+0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	75	331	65	35	13	54%	3.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.87	+0.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	75	331	65	35	13	54%	3.1	19.6%	10.6%	9.1%	3.9%	5.04	5.02	-0.1
2023	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	17.3%	9.4%	7.9%	3.7%	5.56	4.85	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	17.3%	9.4%	7.9%	3.7%	5.56	4.85	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	3.9%	5.56	5.05	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.46	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.46	—
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	7	103	460	107	52	20	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	5.07	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.68	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	WSH	51	0	54	228	45	24	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.5%	4.91	5.06	-0.3
2028	37	MLB MLE	WSH	45	0	47	198	37	22	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.9%	5.24	5.46	-0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	171	30	20	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.7%	5.8%	4.4%	5.63	5.89	-0.6
2027	36	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.5%	4.91	5.06	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.9%	5.24	5.46	—
2029	38	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	11.7%	5.8%	4.4%	5.63	5.89	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	7	103	460	107	52	20	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	4.95	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		134	14	200	896	208	101	39	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		230	97	648	2806	553	281	83	42%	2.8	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.22	4.33	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	30	200	866	171	87	26	42%	2.8	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.22	4.33	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Farrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	20.8%	9.7%	3.1%	—	5.43	18.7%	7.8%	141	+0.74	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	65
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	65
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	64
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	63
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	59
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	59
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	58
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	58
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	55
Pete Walker R 2003 · 5.73 FIP	34	SW	5.73	12.0%	9.1%	4.5%	.267	4.70	14.0%	5.1%	114	-1.03	4.45	327	54
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	52
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	52
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	51
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	51
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	50
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	50
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	50
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	50
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	20.7%	11.0%	1.51	5.04
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43