Michael Wacha

P Kansas City Royals

Age 36 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	30	30	171	3.27	3.40	21.6%	6.3%	3.1	K 21.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.60
2025	34	MLBKC	31	31	173	3.86	3.55	17.6%	6.3%	2.8
2026	35	MLBKC	32	32	201	3.32	4.26	19.5%	6.5%	1.5
2027PROJ	36	MLBKC	27	27	162	4.20	4.54	18.9%	6.5%	0.7
2028PROJ	37	MLBKC	24	24	141	4.49	4.79	17.8%	7.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ	38	MLBKC	20	20	121	4.91	5.20	16.7%	7.8%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.360First FA2028Options3

2027Ext / FA-deal$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

FB Velo32

K%32

Whiff%24

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 36) · Jose Contreras (age 36) · Steve Sparks (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.54

K%18.9%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP162

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB+4.2 (41%)

CH+2.5 (25%)

SL+1.1 (9%)

CT (15%)

SI (14%)

CU (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.360 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.7	$3M	-$8M
Totals		$11M		$3M	-$8M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$10.7M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$16.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	15	9	65	260	65	19	5	60%	4.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	2.1%	2.78	3.05	+1.5
2013	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	15	9	65	260	65	19	5	60%	4.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	1.9%	2.78	2.98	+1.5
2014	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	19	19	107	447	94	33	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	1.4%	3.20	3.05	+2.5
2014	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	19	19	107	447	94	33	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	1.3%	3.20	3.00	+2.6
2015	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.7%	3.38	3.77	+2.5
2015	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.67	+2.7
2016	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.7%	5.09	3.79	+1.8
2016	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.71	+2.0
2017	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.6%	4.13	3.57	+2.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.13	3.47	+2.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.7%	3.56	4.19	+0.8
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.6%	3.56	4.08	+0.9
2019	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	5.0%	4.76	5.42	-0.7
2019	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	4.6%	4.76	5.33	-0.6
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.84	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.98	-0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.5%	5.05	4.37	+0.8
2021	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.4%	5.05	4.30	+0.9
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	3.6%	3.23	4.12	+1.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	21.4%	6.2%	15.1%	3.3%	3.23	3.85	+1.7
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.64	+2.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.3%	8.2%	14.2%	2.7%	3.17	3.69	+2.0
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+2.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+2.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.4%	3.27	3.40	+3.1
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+2.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+2.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.1%	3.86	3.55	+2.8
2026	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	4.0%	3.32	4.48	+1.0
2026	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	4.0%	3.32	4.48	+1.0
2026	35	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	3.7%	3.32	4.26	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			341	320	1828	7658	1574	538	224	94%	5.4	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	2.9%	3.83	3.85	+22.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	KC	27	27	162	684	129	44	23	100%	6.0	18.9%	6.5%	12.4%	3.3%	4.20	4.54	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	141	595	106	43	22	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.1%	10.7%	3.7%	4.64	4.94	-0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	121	512	85	40	21	100%	6.1	16.7%	7.8%	8.8%	4.2%	5.08	5.37	-0.6
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	141	595	106	43	21	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.1%	10.7%	3.5%	4.49	4.79	-0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	121	511	85	40	20	100%	6.0	16.7%	7.8%	8.8%	3.9%	4.91	5.20	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		385	364	2090	8765	1765	621	264	95%	5.4	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.93	3.95	+23.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	839	169	59	25	95%	5.4	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.93	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		348	327	1850	7748	1592	545	240	94%	5.3	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	3.1%	3.82	3.95	+22.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	838	172	59	26	94%	5.3	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	3.1%	3.82	3.95	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Wacha (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	18.9%	6.5%	3.3%	—	5.14	17.3%	9.8%	262	+0.60	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	79
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	57
Steve Sparks R 2001 · 4.14 FIP	36	SP	4.14	11.8%	6.4%	2.2%	.284	4.69	11.2%	3.7%	417	+0.55	3.78	1,320	57
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	37
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	36
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	36
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	35
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	30
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	29
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	28
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	28
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	28
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	27
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	25
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	24
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	24
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	23
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	22
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	20
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	20

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.3	132	20.0%	7.2%	1.19	3.97
Aníbal Sánchez ('22)	10.1	126	20.6%	8.0%	1.06	4.06
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14
Mike Flanagan ('75-'92, 32 WAR*)	13.8	163	19.0%*	7.6%*	1.06*	4.25*
Johnny Podres ('53-'69, 28 WAR*)	11.3	162	21.3%*	7.8%*	1.20*	4.08*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Mark Portugal ('85-'99, 18 WAR*)	9.1	130	18.0%*	7.7%*	1.27*	4.25*