Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 63 | 255 | 83 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 15.8% | 2.4% | 2.44 | 3.45 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 63 | 255 | 83 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 32.5% | 7.5% | 25.1% | 1.6% | 2.44 | 2.19 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 421 | 96 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.34 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 421 | 96 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 92 | 423 | 98 | 58 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 6.36 | 4.07 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 92 | 423 | 98 | 58 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 23.2% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | 6.36 | 3.57 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 13 | 0 | 17 | 81 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.8% | 13.6% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 7.27 | 5.79 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 13 | 0 | 17 | 81 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.8% | 13.6% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 7.27 | 5.87 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 57 | 2 | 68 | 298 | 63 | 38 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.42 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 57 | 2 | 68 | 298 | 63 | 38 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.89 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.85 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 17 | 12 | 63 | 297 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 71% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.03 | 5.09 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 17 | 12 | 63 | 297 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 71% | 3.7 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 6.03 | 4.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 68 | 286 | 52 | 41 | 8 | — | — | 18.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.27 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 18.1% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 44 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.58 | 5.71 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.58 | 5.71 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 4 | 131 | 570 | 109 | 75 | 15 | 4% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.64 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 6 | 200 | 871 | 167 | 115 | 23 | 3% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 69 | 408 | 1811 | 359 | 226 | 42 | 47% | 2.8 | 19.8% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.30 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 34 | 200 | 887 | 176 | 111 | 21 | 47% | 2.8 | 19.8% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Funkhouser (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 18.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | — | 5.59 | 17.6% | 3.7% | 112 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 77 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 71 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2024 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 69 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 6.21 FIP | 32 | SW | 6.21 | 10.0% | 13.0% | 4.2% | .316 | 4.21 | 21.3% | 16.2% | 15 | -2.00 | 3.49 | 212 | 69 |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 69 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 69 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 66 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 65 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 65 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 63 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.44 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 4.3% | .255 | 4.13 | 22.2% | 12.5% | 248 | -1.31 | 3.02 | 646 | 63 |
| Seth Simmons R 2024 · 6.19 FIP | 30 | SW | 6.19 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 251 | 62 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.08 | 3.69 | 521 | 61 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 61 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.23 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.13 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 179 | -0.10 | 2.34 | 577 | 60 |
| Hector Galvan R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 58 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.02 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | .268 | 5.32 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.30 | 3.84 | 567 | 58 |
| Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 1.24 | 5.54 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |