Chase De Jong prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chase De Jong P Indianapolis Indians

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.71

FIP4.81

K%21.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1011.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.416

SL-2.3

FB-5.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	136	562	129	32	15	96%	5.5	17.3%	6.6%	10.6%	3.6%	3.43	4.43	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	136	562	129	32	15	96%	5.5	23.0%	5.7%	17.3%	2.7%	3.43	3.34	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	147	587	133	40	15	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.6%	10.3%	3.1%	2.82	4.27	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	147	587	133	40	15	100%	5.7	22.7%	6.8%	15.8%	2.6%	2.82	3.43	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	141	631	92	50	26	89%	5.2	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	4.6%	6.06	5.60	-1.1
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	141	631	92	50	26	89%	5.2	14.6%	7.9%	6.7%	4.1%	6.06	5.26	-0.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	30	178	756	136	51	17	94%	5.6	15.2%	7.3%	8.0%	2.8%	3.65	4.26	+1.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	30	178	756	136	51	17	94%	5.6	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	2.2%	3.65	3.67	+2.6
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	46	242	30	29	17	71%	3.3	11.3%	11.7%	-0.4%	7.9%	10.29	7.96	-1.6
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	46	242	30	29	17	71%	3.3	12.4%	12.0%	0.4%	7.0%	10.29	8.45	-1.8
2020	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	3	2	7	38	9	4	2	67%	2.4	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	5.3%	14.73	5.32	-0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	3	2	7	38	9	4	2	67%	2.4	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	5.3%	14.73	5.83	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	64	279	67	25	14	100%	4.9	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	5.3%	5.09	5.26	-0.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	64	279	67	25	14	100%	4.9	24.0%	9.0%	15.1%	5.0%	5.09	5.03	-0.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	85	344	78	34	10	4%	1.9	22.0%	10.0%	12.1%	3.1%	2.55	4.23	+0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	85	344	78	34	10	4%	1.9	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	2.9%	2.55	4.00	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	43	202	37	29	7	7%	1.4	16.2%	13.2%	3.0%	3.7%	6.33	5.44	-0.4
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	43	202	37	29	7	7%	1.4	16.2%	13.2%	3.0%	3.7%	6.33	5.44	-0.4
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	43	202	37	29	7	7%	1.4	18.3%	14.4%	4.0%	3.5%	6.33	5.54	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			72	19	181	795	140	78	38	26%	2.5	17.6%	9.8%	7.8%	4.8%	5.42	5.58	-2.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.3%	4.71	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	48	205	42	22	7	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.09	-0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	44	186	36	21	7	100%	6.3	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.9%	5.21	5.40	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	PIT	3	3	18	76	16	8	3	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.09	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	14	59	12	7	2	100%	7.0	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.9%	5.21	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	24	213	930	167	93	43	31%	2.8	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	4.6%	5.37	5.39	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		72	23	200	873	157	87	40	31%	2.8	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	4.6%	5.37	5.39	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		215	133	847	3641	607	308	143	62%	3.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	3.9%	4.46	4.92	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	31	200	860	143	73	34	62%	3.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	3.9%	4.46	4.92	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase De Jong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.2%	10.4%	3.3%	—	5.24	20.0%	8.9%	93	+0.43	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	79
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	71
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	69
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	65
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	63
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	61
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	61
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	61
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	61
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	60
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	60
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	59
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	59
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	59
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	59
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	343	58
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	57
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	18.9%	10.5%	1.64	5.21
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24