Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Twins | 12 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 26.9% | -3.9% | 0.0% | 2.92 | 4.57 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Twins | 12 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 21.5% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 2.92 | 2.94 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 38 | 153 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 1.41 | 2.70 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 38 | 153 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 33.3% | 10.5% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 1.41 | 1.69 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 241 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.7% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 1.55 | 2.13 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 241 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 35.3% | 8.7% | 26.6% | 0.0% | 1.55 | 1.26 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 49 | 1 | 74 | 304 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 2% | 1.5 | 30.5% | 6.8% | 23.7% | 1.0% | 1.57 | 1.91 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 49 | 1 | 74 | 304 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 2% | 1.5 | 37.8% | 6.6% | 31.2% | 0.7% | 1.57 | 1.16 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 1 | 37 | 183 | 51 | 36 | 1 | 3% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 20.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 6.14 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 1 | 37 | 183 | 51 | 36 | 1 | 3% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 19.7% | 8.2% | 0.5% | 6.14 | 3.62 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 214 | 82 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.4% | 12.1% | 21.3% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 214 | 82 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.3% | 11.2% | 27.1% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 2.56 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 41 | 165 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 23.4% | 0.9% | 3.07 | 1.88 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 41 | 165 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 6.7% | 26.1% | 1.2% | 3.07 | 1.90 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 248 | 52 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 3.11 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 248 | 52 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 1.6% | 3.11 | 3.41 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 48 | 3 | 69 | 324 | 63 | 31 | 8 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.11 | 5.48 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 48 | 3 | 69 | 324 | 63 | 31 | 8 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 4.13 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.28 | 5.96 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 4.3% | 5.28 | 4.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 32 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 30 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.39 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 27 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.67 | 5.94 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 41 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 23 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 5.95 | 6.19 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.39 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.67 | 5.94 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 5.95 | 6.19 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 0 | 111 | 493 | 89 | 53 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.34 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 888 | 160 | 95 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 335 | 5 | 450 | 1967 | 483 | 219 | 35 | 1% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 3.16 | 3.41 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 2 | 200 | 875 | 215 | 97 | 16 | 1% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 3.16 | 3.41 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Vasquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 13.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.94 | 12.9% | 1.5% | 145 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 80 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.33 | 13.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.86 | 21.8% | 14.4% | 64 | -1.47 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 75 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.45 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.96 | 191 | 72 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 69 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.79 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.8% | .403 | 5.24 | 14.8% | 1.6% | 45 | -0.55 | 2.79 | 181 | 67 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 64 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 63 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 60 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.70 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.7% | .380 | 4.02 | 18.5% | 5.4% | 36 | -1.68 | 3.03 | 299 | 59 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 58 |
| Travis Wood L 2024 · 5.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.72 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 256 | 58 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 56 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .324 | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 92 | -1.13 | 2.83 | 225 | 54 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.63 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | .286 | 5.07 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.44 | 2.37 | 296 | 54 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 54 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.56 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 5.2% | .268 | 5.04 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 129 | -0.52 | 3.76 | 686 | 53 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.73 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | .290 | 3.42 | 24.5% | 19.8% | 117 | -1.31 | 1.52 | 350 | 53 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.24 | 20.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 218 | 53 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 12.9% | 11.2% | 1.43 | 5.47 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |