Aaron Bummer

P Kansas City Royals

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBATL	56	0	55	3.58	1.94	28.3%	6.6%	1.7
2025	31	MLBATL	42	2	54	3.81	2.66	21.7%	5.5%	1.2
2026	32	MIX3 levels	31	1	27	7.67	6.84	20.2%	9.3%	-0.7	K 14.8% · BB 12.5% · FIP 8.16
2027PROJ	33	MLBKC	50	0	52	4.51	4.64	20.0%	8.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBKC	46	0	48	4.77	4.94	19.1%	8.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ	35	MLBKC	41	0	43	5.08	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsHideki Okajima (age 33) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Kelly Wunsch (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.51

FIP4.64

K%20.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

CT (10%)

FB (47%)

SI (39%)

CU (21%)

SL-0.6 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.2%	7.7%	0.0%	4.86	3.05	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	0.0%	4.86	2.20	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	2.9%	3.68	4.62	-0.1
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.87	+0.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	22.6%	7.5%	15.0%	0.4%	3.47	2.35	+1.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	0.4%	3.47	2.19	+1.8
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	1.5%	2.15	3.05	+1.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.4%	8.2%	14.3%	1.4%	2.15	2.99	+1.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.66	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.71	+0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.6%	8.5%	17.1%	1.7%	2.83	2.94	+0.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	1.6%	2.83	2.93	+0.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.94	+1.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.66	+1.2
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	7.0%	7.67	6.84	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			408	2	398	1728	442	160	30	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	1.7%	4.07	3.06	+7.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	KC	50	0	52	220	44	18	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.51	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	48	201	38	18	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.94	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	KC	41	0	43	180	33	17	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.08	5.28	-0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	KC	46	0	48	203	39	18	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.94	-0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	33	17	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.08	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		494	2	489	2109	513	194	44	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	2.1%	4.22	3.37	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	863	210	79	18	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	2.1%	4.22	3.37	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		499	4	515	2218	541	212	39	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	2	200	862	210	83	15	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Bummer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.0%	8.2%	3.3%	—	5.10	18.7%	9.6%	90	+0.46	—	—	—
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	82
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	81
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	76
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	76
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	75
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	74
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	73
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	72
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	72
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	71
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	71
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	71
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	69
Francisley Bueno L 2014 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	14.1%	3.5%	2.3%	.289	3.94	13.6%	6.9%	138	+0.33	2.43	188	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	68
Ryan Sherriff L 2023 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	21.9%	11.0%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	68
Pedro Borbón L 2001 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	20.7%	4.1%	3.7%	.258	4.57	21.6%	14.3%	50	+0.67	2.26	264	67
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	66
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	66
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	49	23.9%	9.8%	0.86	4.25
Jerry Blevins ('19)	2.5	45	24.2%	9.3%	0.91	3.54
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
J.P. Howell ('17)	3.1	56	21.3%	10.2%	0.86	3.83
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*