Roenis Elías prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Roenis Elías P Iowa Cubs

Age 37 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.40

FIP4.43

K%22.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

CH+0.7

FB-0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	164	693	143	61	16	100%	5.6	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.4%	3.85	3.77	+2.2
2014	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	29	29	164	693	143	61	16	100%	5.6	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.3%	3.85	3.74	+2.3
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	32	177	771	144	61	24	94%	5.2	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.1%	5.25	4.32	+1.2
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	32	177	771	144	61	24	94%	5.2	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.1%	5.25	4.27	+1.3
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	133	574	116	61	12	83%	5.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.4%	2.1%	4.14	4.09	+1.3
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	133	574	116	61	12	83%	5.5	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	2.1%	4.14	3.91	+1.6
2017	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	9	41	194	28	13	11	90%	4.1	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	5.7%	7.24	5.83	-0.4
2017	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	9	41	194	28	13	11	90%	4.1	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	5.7%	7.24	6.17	-0.6
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	92	389	74	32	3	30%	2.5	17.8%	8.4%	9.3%	0.9%	3.23	3.15	+1.6
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	11	92	389	74	32	3	30%	2.5	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	0.8%	3.23	2.96	+1.8
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	0	50	216	47	17	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.6%	3.96	4.80	-0.1
2019	30	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	48	0	50	216	47	17	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.6%	3.96	4.84	-0.2
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	9	73	311	61	22	9	20%	1.7	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	2.8%	4.95	4.06	+0.4
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	9	73	311	61	22	9	20%	1.7	19.6%	7.1%	12.5%	2.9%	4.95	3.94	+0.5
2023	34	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	7.9%	5.48	6.61	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	7.9%	5.48	6.61	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	7.0%	5.48	5.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			133	54	396	1685	331	144	45	41%	3.0	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	2.7%	3.96	4.00	+2.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	169	36	16	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.6%	4.67	4.86	-0.1
2027	38	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	36	16	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.6%	4.67	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	54	436	1854	367	160	51	32%	2.5	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.02	4.03	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		79	25	200	851	168	73	23	32%	2.5	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.02	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		230	114	750	3234	602	276	92	50%	3.3	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.18	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	30	200	862	160	74	25	50%	3.3	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.18	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roenis Elías (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.5%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.86	21.3%	11.7%	40	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	57
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	48
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	45
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	44
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	39
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	34
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	34
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	28
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	27
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	24
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	23
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	21
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	20
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	19
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	19
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	19
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	18
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	18
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	17

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	20.1%	9.0%	1.08	4.06
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Scott Sullivan ('04)	3.7	92	19.8%	8.9%	1.09	3.98
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Alfredo Aceves ('14)	1.9	76	17.6%	8.1%	1.14	3.83