Art Warren

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	28	MIX2 levels	41	0	37	2.92	1.24	41.6%	7.1%	1.5	K 39.2% · BB 7.3% · FIP 1.40
2022	29	MIX3 levels	43	0	40	5.85	4.45	24.9%	12.2%	0.0	K 24.2% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.51
2024	31	MIX2 levels	28	0	31	8.51	6.56	21.6%	14.8%	—	K 18.2% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.77
2027PROJ	34	MLBNYY	125	0	131	4.29	4.33	25.8%	9.9%	0.3
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBNYY	6	0	6	4.51	4.66	24.4%	10.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.79	5.00	23.2%	10.6%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

Whiff%79

K%61

FB Velo36

xwOBA vs30

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Blake Parker (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.29

FIP4.33

K%25.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%15.9%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

SL+0.5

FB-5.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.50	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.53	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	14.3%	10.9%	3.4%	0.5%	3.17	3.57	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	0.4%	3.17	2.90	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	3.06	4.30	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	1.8%	3.06	3.19	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	25.8%	22.3%	3.5%	0.0%	1.72	3.75	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	31.9%	20.3%	11.6%	0.0%	1.72	2.97	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.8%	1.2%	1.46	2.98	+0.7
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	30.9%	10.1%	20.8%	0.7%	1.46	2.18	+1.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	39.2%	7.3%	31.9%	1.3%	2.92	1.40	+1.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	41.6%	7.1%	34.4%	1.3%	2.92	1.24	+1.5
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.2%	12.7%	11.5%	3.4%	5.85	4.51	+0.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	3.3%	5.85	4.45	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.8%	6.1%	8.51	6.77	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.8%	6.1%	8.51	6.77	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.8%	6.8%	4.9%	8.51	6.56	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	62	268	79	30	7	0%	0.9	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.47	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	NYY	125	0	131	553	143	55	18	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.33	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	112	0	117	495	121	51	18	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.2%	14.3%	3.6%	4.51	4.66	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	NYY	99	0	104	438	102	47	17	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.9%	4.79	5.00	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.2%	14.3%	3.6%	4.51	4.66	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.9%	4.79	5.00	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	0	69	295	86	33	8	0%	0.9	29.0%	11.1%	17.9%	2.7%	4.22	3.54	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		224	0	200	858	250	96	23	0%	0.9	29.0%	11.1%	17.9%	2.7%	4.22	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		237	20	343	1505	322	175	30	8%	1.4	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	12	200	878	188	102	17	8%	1.4	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Art Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	25.8%	9.9%	3.2%	—	4.82	23.9%	13.5%	221	+0.49	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	64
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	62
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	62
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	62
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	61
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	61
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	61
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	60
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	60
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	60
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	59
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	59
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	58
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	57
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	57
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	56
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	56
Ryan Brasier R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	34	SU	3.55	24.3%	4.6%	3.5%	.331	2.95	22.3%	16.1%	114	-0.60	2.31	426	55
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	54
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	83	25.3%	10.5%	1.32	4.46
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Tom Acker ('56-'59, 3 WAR*)	1.9	95	23.8%*	9.3%*	1.17*	4.30*
Bill Kennedy ('48-'57, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	24.6%*	10.6%*	1.08*	4.62*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66