Zach Thompson

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 33 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MLBPIT	29	22	122	5.18	4.78	16.6%	8.5%	0.2
2023	29	MIX2 levels	25	25	108	4.49	4.60	17.4%	10.2%	—	K 15.0% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.03
2025	31	MIX3 levels	19	6	41	5.98	4.82	17.6%	12.6%	-0.1	K 11.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	33	MLBATL	143	0	150	5.36	5.28	16.3%	12.2%	-1.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBATL	7	0	7	5.49	5.58	15.4%	12.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBATL	1	0	1	5.75	5.92	14.4%	13.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

Whiff%42

FB Velo19

xwOBA vs19

K%12

CompsPete Walker (age 33) · Marco Quevedo (age 32) · Angel Castro (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.36

FIP5.28

K%16.3%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP150

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6565

CTRL4045

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1216.6%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

FB+1.7 (45%)

CT+0.7 (27%)

CH (13%)

SI (5%)

CU (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	16	16	75	335	64	37	2	100%	4.7	14.1%	13.0%	1.1%	0.9%	4.44	4.06	—
2015	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	16	16	75	335	64	37	2	100%	4.7	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	0.6%	4.44	3.22	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	141	596	128	54	12	100%	5.4	16.1%	10.6%	5.5%	2.4%	3.77	4.42	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	141	596	128	54	12	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.0%	3.77	3.54	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	33	14	93	427	73	50	8	42%	2.8	13.2%	13.5%	-0.3%	1.8%	5.50	4.70	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	33	14	93	427	73	50	8	42%	2.8	17.1%	11.7%	5.4%	1.9%	5.50	4.26	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	75	310	76	29	4	0%	1.8	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	1.55	3.68	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	75	310	76	29	4	0%	1.8	24.5%	9.4%	15.2%	1.3%	1.55	2.93	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	76	334	84	24	15	0%	1.7	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	4.3%	5.23	4.61	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	76	334	84	24	15	0%	1.7	25.1%	7.2%	18.0%	4.5%	5.23	4.41	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	90	384	87	29	10	41%	2.6	22.0%	7.6%	14.4%	2.9%	3.80	3.81	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	14	90	384	87	29	10	41%	2.6	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.6%	3.80	3.58	+1.0
2022	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	29	22	122	543	90	46	19	76%	4.2	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.8%	5.18	4.85	+0.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	29	22	122	543	90	46	19	76%	4.2	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.18	4.78	+0.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	108	471	82	48	14	100%	4.3	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	3.7%	4.49	5.03	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	108	471	82	48	14	100%	4.3	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.60	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	2.7%	5.98	5.24	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	2.7%	5.98	5.24	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	17.6%	12.6%	4.9%	2.7%	5.98	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	36	200	870	159	74	25	63%	3.5	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.24	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	ATL	143	0	150	633	103	77	19	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.36	5.28	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	130	0	136	574	88	73	19	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.3%	5.49	5.58	-1.5
2029	35	MLB MLE	ATL	116	0	122	516	74	68	19	0%	1.1	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	3.6%	5.75	5.92	-1.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.3%	5.49	5.58	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	3.6%	5.75	5.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	36	209	907	165	79	26	55%	3.2	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.25	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		62	34	200	868	158	76	25	55%	3.2	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		270	123	821	3582	599	365	99	46%	3.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.50	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	30	200	873	146	89	24	46%	3.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.50	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	16.3%	12.2%	3.0%	—	5.74	14.9%	2.0%	258	+0.46	—	—	—
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	62
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	61
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	60
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	60
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	57
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	56
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	56
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	55
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	54
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	54
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	52
R.A. Dickey R 2008 · 4.96 FIP	33	SW	4.96	11.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.287	3.78	14.9%	8.6%	447	-1.18	3.14	2,070	51
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	51
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	49
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	48
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	47
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	47
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	46
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	45
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	122	16.4%	11.3%	1.21	5.14
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*
Rickey Clark ('67-'72, -1 WAR*)	2.2	108	15.9%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.74*
Rich Hand ('70-'73, 1 WAR*)	2.4	122	17.8%*	11.3%*	1.34*	4.83*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65
Luke Hudson ('07)	1.2	81	15.2%	11.5%	0.96	5.11