Yacksel Ríos

P Iowa Cubs

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	AAANYM	27	0	30	3.30	4.17	22.2%	16.3%	—	K 19.1% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.19
2025	32	MIX3 levels	4	1	3	18.00	7.43	17.6%	11.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 11.8% · FIP 6.33
2026	33	MIX2 levels	12	0	19	3.86	6.37	21.5%	12.7%	-0.4	K 17.4% · BB 12.2% · FIP 7.25
2027PROJ	34	MLBCHC	50	0	53	5.00	4.86	23.4%	11.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBCHC	3	0	3	5.12	5.19	22.4%	11.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.38	5.56	21.4%	12.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo84

Whiff%51

K%36

xwOBA vs26

CompsDiego Moreno (age 34) · Mark Serrano (age 33) · Leo Rosales (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA5.00

FIP4.86

K%23.4%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB-2.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	10	88	358	71	20	4	38%	3.4	15.3%	6.4%	8.8%	1.3%	2.75	3.31	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	26	10	88	358	71	20	4	38%	3.4	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	1.1%	2.75	2.76	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	7	78	350	64	36	4	19%	2.1	14.5%	11.6%	2.9%	1.5%	5.74	4.18	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	7	78	350	64	36	4	19%	2.1	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	1.1%	5.74	3.51	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	1	73	287	81	21	9	2%	1.5	24.4%	7.7%	16.7%	3.1%	2.48	3.71	+0.7
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	1	73	287	81	21	9	2%	1.5	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	3.1%	2.48	3.35	+1.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	59	269	62	30	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	2.9%	5.68	4.32	+0.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	59	269	62	30	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.9%	3.0%	5.68	4.29	+0.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	297	61	33	10	0%	1.2	18.6%	11.5%	7.0%	3.8%	6.06	5.07	-0.4
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	62	297	61	33	10	0%	1.2	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.4%	6.06	4.82	-0.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	194	48	21	4	0%	1.2	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.0%	3.64	3.64	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	47	194	48	21	4	0%	1.2	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	2.1%	3.64	3.50	+0.6
2022	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	30	1	33	157	38	29	4	3%	1.1	21.3%	19.4%	1.9%	2.0%	4.91	4.84	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	30	1	33	157	38	29	4	3%	1.1	24.2%	18.5%	5.7%	2.5%	4.91	5.01	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	27	113	32	14	3	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	2.3%	4.67	3.06	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	27	113	32	14	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	12.4%	15.9%	2.7%	4.67	3.73	+0.3
2024	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	1.5%	3.30	4.19	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	1.5%	3.30	4.19	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.3%	5.9%	1.5%	3.30	4.17	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	6.33	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	6.33	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	7.43	—
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	19	79	17	10	5	0%	1.6	17.4%	12.2%	5.3%	7.4%	3.86	7.25	-0.6
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	19	79	17	10	5	0%	1.6	17.4%	12.2%	5.3%	7.4%	3.86	7.25	-0.6
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	19	79	17	10	5	0%	1.6	21.5%	12.7%	8.9%	6.3%	3.86	6.37	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	100	453	95	53	18	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	4.0%	6.21	5.13	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	CHC	50	0	53	224	52	25	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	3.5%	5.00	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CHC	45	0	47	200	45	24	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	-0.3
2029	36	MLB MLE	CHC	40	0	42	177	38	22	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	4.2%	5.38	5.56	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	CHC	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	4.2%	5.38	5.56	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	0	103	464	97	54	18	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	4.0%	6.18	4.99	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	904	189	105	35	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	4.0%	6.18	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		366	20	523	2273	443	244	56	5%	1.4	19.5%	10.7%	8.7%	2.5%	4.41	4.18	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	8	200	869	169	93	22	5%	1.4	19.5%	10.7%	8.7%	2.5%	4.41	4.18	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yacksel Ríos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	23.4%	11.4%	3.5%	—	5.36	21.9%	9.7%	89	+0.50	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	78
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	74
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	73
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	72
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	70
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	70
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	67
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	66
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	65
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	65
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	64
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	63
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	63
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	63
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	62
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	21.8%	12.1%	1.50	5.59
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*