Brandon Leibrandt
P
Louisville Bats
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP4.44
SIERA4.03
K%21.3%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.1%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†5050
CH+1.8 (32%)
SI (6%)
CU (8%)
SL-2.7 (27%)
FB-3.0 (32%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 19 | 18 | 108 | 418 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 13.1% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 2.91 | 3.69 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 10 | 10 | 44 | 171 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 14.6% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 2.27 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 25 | 25 | 137 | 566 | 105 | 46 | 12 | 15.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 4.08 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 20 | 6 | 51 | 189 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 14.9% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 1.42 | 2.88 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 21 | 18 | 89 | 387 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 21 | 8 | 69 | 289 | 68 | 16 | 14 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.67 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 19 | 17 | 90 | 384 | 85 | 23 | 18 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 4.49 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 10 | 9 | 41 | 163 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 2.85 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 3 | 3 | 12 | 55 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 6.94 | 5.95 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 54 | 233 | 51 | 20 | 9 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 153 | 114 | 649 | 2658 | 442 | 206 | 84 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 4.42 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 35 | 200 | 819 | 136 | 63 | 26 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Leibrandt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.78 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 113 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 82 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 82 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 81 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 80 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 78 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 78 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 76 |
| Edward Paredes L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.13 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 130 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 75 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 75 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 74 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 73 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 72 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 72 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 72 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 256 | 71 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 71 |
| Josh Edgin L 2024 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.