Brandon Leibrandt
P
Louisville Bats
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%19.1%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH+1.8 (32%)
SI (6%)
CU (8%)
SL-2.7 (27%)
FB-3.0 (32%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 108 | 418 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 95% | 5.7 | 13.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 2.91 | 3.62 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 108 | 418 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 95% | 5.7 | 17.9% | 5.0% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 2.91 | 3.02 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 171 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.6% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 2.27 | 3.97 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 171 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 1.2% | 2.27 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 137 | 566 | 105 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 3.62 | 3.99 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 137 | 566 | 105 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.62 | 3.71 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 20 | 6 | 51 | 189 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 30% | 2.5 | 14.9% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 0.6% | 1.42 | 2.90 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 20 | 6 | 51 | 189 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 30% | 2.5 | 16.9% | 5.3% | 11.6% | 0.5% | 1.42 | 2.69 | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 8.3% | 16.7% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 2.00 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 8.3% | 16.7% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 2.00 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 89 | 387 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 86% | 4.2 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.68 | 5.96 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 89 | 387 | 74 | 33 | 16 | 86% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 8 | 69 | 289 | 68 | 16 | 14 | 38% | 3.3 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 13.7% | 5.5% | 4.67 | 5.20 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 8 | 69 | 289 | 68 | 16 | 14 | 38% | 3.3 | 23.5% | 5.5% | 18.0% | 4.8% | 4.67 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 90 | 384 | 85 | 23 | 18 | 89% | 4.7 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.31 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 90 | 384 | 85 | 23 | 18 | 89% | 4.7 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 16.1% | 4.7% | 4.80 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 10 | 9 | 41 | 163 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 90% | 4.1 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 2.85 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 10 | 9 | 41 | 163 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 90% | 4.1 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 2.85 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 17 | 16 | 83 | 360 | 61 | 25 | 18 | 94% | 4.9 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.88 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 130 | 561 | 99 | 40 | 25 | — | — | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 4.67 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 54 | 226 | 99 | 40 | 25 | — | — | 43.9% | 17.7% | 26.2% | 11.0% | 11.38 | 7.66 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 38 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 23 | 155 | 662 | 116 | 56 | 26 | 74% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.82 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 30 | 200 | 855 | 150 | 72 | 34 | 75% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 167 | 127 | 720 | 2963 | 485 | 226 | 99 | 76% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.52 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 823 | 135 | 63 | 28 | 76% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Leibrandt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.11 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 92 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 77 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 75 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 75 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 73 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 71 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 70 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 70 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.29 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.43 | 10.1% | 2.4% | 117 | +1.14 | 4.35 | 327 | 69 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 67 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.97 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.75 | 11.3% | 5.2% | 224 | -0.22 | 4.24 | 445 | 65 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.90 | 10.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 137 | 65 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 64 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 64 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 64 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.90 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.88 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 32 | +0.98 | 2.90 | 864 | 62 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 61 |
| Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 61 |
| Matt Dermody L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.91 | 21.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 348 | 61 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 233 | 60 |
| Drew Smyly L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.03 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.52 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 201 | +0.49 | 2.01 | 840 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.41 | 4.83 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |