Zach Davies

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	29	MLBARI	27	27	134	4.09	4.77	17.9%	9.1%	0.2
2023	30	MIX3 levels	22	22	100	6.91	4.24	18.5%	10.2%	0.8	K 17.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.37
2024	31	AAAKC	5	5	21	4.29	4.48	12.9%	9.7%	—	K 11.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	34	MLBKC	2	2	10	4.46	4.54	20.7%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ	35	MLBKC	3	3	20	4.57	4.73	19.7%	9.7%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%29

Whiff%27

xwOBA vs14

FB Velo10

CompsKoji Uehara (age 34) · Josh Lowey (age 34) · Manuel Flores (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.46

FIP4.54

K%20.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL-0.7

CH-4.6

FB-7.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	162	686	126	60	8	97%	5.4	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	1.4%	3.38	3.60	+2.6
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	162	686	126	60	8	97%	5.4	18.4%	8.7%	9.6%	1.2%	3.38	3.30	+3.2
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	172	718	146	40	20	100%	5.7	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	2.8%	3.86	3.67	+2.6
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	172	718	146	40	20	100%	5.7	20.3%	5.6%	14.8%	2.8%	3.86	3.61	+2.7
2017	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	191	817	124	52	20	100%	5.8	15.2%	6.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.90	3.90	+2.3
2017	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	191	817	124	52	20	100%	5.8	15.2%	6.4%	8.8%	2.4%	3.90	3.98	+2.1
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	113	472	93	34	11	100%	4.7	17.4%	7.1%	10.2%	2.4%	4.62	3.84	+1.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	113	472	93	34	11	100%	4.7	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	2.3%	4.62	3.62	+1.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	160	672	102	51	20	100%	5.2	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	2.8%	3.55	4.34	+1.1
2019	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	160	672	102	51	20	100%	5.2	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	3.0%	3.55	4.41	+0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	276	63	19	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	3.2%	2.73	3.79	+0.9
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	276	63	19	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	3.3%	2.73	3.79	+0.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	148	668	114	73	25	100%	4.6	17.1%	10.9%	6.1%	3.9%	5.78	5.18	-0.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	32	32	148	668	114	73	25	100%	4.6	17.1%	10.9%	6.1%	3.7%	5.78	5.24	-0.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	27	27	134	570	102	52	21	100%	5.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.9%	4.09	4.88	+0.0
2022	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	27	27	134	570	102	52	21	100%	5.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.7%	4.09	4.77	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	100	460	85	47	11	100%	4.6	17.5%	10.2%	7.2%	2.6%	6.91	4.37	+0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	100	460	85	47	11	100%	4.6	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	2.4%	6.91	4.24	+0.8
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	11.1%	8.7%	2.4%	2.1%	4.29	4.43	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	11.1%	8.7%	2.4%	2.1%	4.29	4.43	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	12.9%	9.7%	3.2%	2.2%	4.29	4.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			200	200	1048	4481	785	357	135	100%	5.2	17.5%	8.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.36	4.30	+7.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	KC	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	3	3	20	84	17	8	3	100%	6.7	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	3.3%	4.71	4.87	+0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	20	84	17	8	3	100%	6.7	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	203	1068	4565	802	365	138	100%	5.3	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.28	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	855	150	68	26	100%	5.3	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.28	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		246	245	1272	5432	933	438	150	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.18	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	854	147	69	24	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.18	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Davies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.87	19.7%	10.0%	20	+0.33	—	—	—
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	73
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	66
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	65
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	64
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	62
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	59
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	59
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	59
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	58
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	58
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	57
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	57
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	55
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	55
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	54
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	53
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	53
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	98	17.6%	8.2%	1.17	4.37
Johnny Humphries ('38-'46, 6 WAR*)	5.0	111	15.8%*	7.9%*	1.07*	4.41*
Gavin Floyd ('16)	6.2	104	18.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.37
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Red Oldham ('14-'26, 3 WAR*)	4.3	122	17.9%*	8.2%*	1.15*	4.57*
Sterling Hitchcock ('04)	6.4	107	17.7%	8.4%	1.27	4.80
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*