Scott Barlow — OGILVIE

Scott Barlow P Athletics

+0.4 WAR

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA4.28

FIP4.29

xFIP5.08

SIERA4.48

K%25.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%13.0%

IP58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

K†6060

SI (20%)

CU (34%)

SL (33%)

FB-2.7 (32%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	19	18	89	384	79	40	7	16.4%	12.3%	1.8%	3.35	4.25	+1.0
2016	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	24	23	124	551	102	51	9	15.0%	10.2%	1.9%	3.98	4.18	+1.6
2017	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	26	26	140	578	160	60	15	22.9%	11.2%	2.6%	3.29	4.04	+2.0
2018	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	22	13	69	304	75	26	11	21.6%	8.8%	4.1%	4.98	4.62	+0.3
2019	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	64	0	76	332	97	37	6	29.7%	11.0%	2.1%	3.89	3.15	+1.7
2020	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	32	0	30	125	39	7	4	31.2%	5.6%	3.2%	4.20	2.95	+0.7
2021	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	71	0	74	306	91	26	4	29.7%	8.5%	1.3%	2.42	2.41	+2.3
2022	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	69	0	74	290	77	21	9	26.6%	7.2%	3.1%	2.18	3.50	+1.3
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	63	0	68	299	79	31	4	26.4%	10.4%	1.4%	4.37	2.95	+1.6
2024	31	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	63	0	55	241	68	30	6	28.2%	12.4%	2.3%	4.25	3.56	+0.9
2025	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	75	1	68	303	75	42	8	24.8%	13.9%	2.4%	4.21	4.10	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Athletics	9	0	9	38	7	5	2	—	—	—	5.19	—	—
ROS	33	MLB	LAD	49	—	49	208	50	26	5	24.3%	12.3%	2.5%	4.24	4.39	+0.3
2026 Total	33	MLB	LAD	—	—	58	246	57	31	7	23.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.38	3.73	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	LAD	55	—	55	232	53	29	7	22.7%	12.6%	2.8%	4.61	4.72	+0.1
2028	35	MLB	LAD	52	—	52	219	48	28	6	21.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2029	36	MLB	LAD	48	—	48	204	43	27	6	21.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.93	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			537	81	876	3751	878	393	89	23.4%	10.5%	2.4%	3.68	3.75	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—			123	18	200	856	200	90	20	23.4%	10.5%	2.4%	3.68	3.75	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott Barlow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	24.3%	12.3%	2.5%	—	4.87	21.9%	9.1%	155	+0.48	—	—	—
John Axford R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	33	SW	3.91	20.8%	10.0%	2.4%	.304	3.97	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.06	3.28	197	70
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	34	SW	3.43	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.91	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.48	3.43	132	68
Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	33	SW	4.16	21.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.234	3.75	23.2%	12.9%	155	-0.41	2.89	453	66
Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	33	SW	3.65	16.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.313	3.99	18.1%	12.9%	111	+0.34	2.47	332	65
Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	35	SW	4.09	18.1%	9.1%	2.5%	.273	3.07	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.02	3.07	102	65
Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	221	65
Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP	36	SW	4.12	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.46	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.34	4.12	145	64
Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	33	SU	4.53	27.0%	14.5%	3.4%	.238	3.71	23.8%	15.4%	84	-0.82	1.94	268	64
Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	64
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	63
Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	33	SU	4.78	20.4%	14.1%	2.9%	.344	5.06	20.0%	10.0%	43	+0.28	2.00	320	63
Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP	32	SW	4.86	17.9%	10.4%	3.5%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+1.01	4.19	166	63
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	32	SU	3.63	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.11	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.48	3.45	170	63
Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	62
Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	19.1%	8.0%	3.8%	.340	3.19	18.3%	10.4%	24	-1.38	3.04	252	62
Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.30 FIP	33	SW	5.30	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.15	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.15	3.81	208	62
Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.29 FIP	33	SW	5.29	17.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.277	4.81	18.0%	11.9%	198	-0.48	3.88	885	62
Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	62
Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	61
Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	33	SW	3.41	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.76	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.41	187	61

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.