Scott Barlow
P
Athletics
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION57 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.12
FIP4.27
xFIP5.08
SIERA4.48
K%22.6%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.7%
IP58
K†6060
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
SI (13%)
CU (34%)
SL (40%)
FB-2.7 (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 19 | 18 | 89 | 384 | 79 | 40 | 7 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 3.35 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 24 | 23 | 124 | 551 | 102 | 51 | 9 | 15.0% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 26 | 26 | 140 | 578 | 160 | 60 | 15 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.88 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 22 | 13 | 69 | 304 | 75 | 26 | 11 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 64 | 0 | 76 | 332 | 97 | 37 | 6 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.12 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 31.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 3.05 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 71 | 0 | 74 | 306 | 91 | 26 | 4 | 29.7% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 2.42 | 2.43 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 0 | 74 | 290 | 77 | 21 | 9 | 26.6% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2.18 | 3.60 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 0 | 68 | 299 | 79 | 31 | 4 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 4.37 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 63 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 68 | 30 | 6 | 28.2% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 75 | 1 | 68 | 303 | 75 | 42 | 8 | 24.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Athletics | 31 | 0 | 30 | 129 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 4.25 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | OAK | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 58 | 248 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 49 | 28 | 7 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 42 | 26 | 7 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 36 | 24 | 7 | 20.2% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 559 | 81 | 897 | 3842 | 896 | 402 | 91 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.76 | +17.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 18 | 200 | 856 | 200 | 90 | 20 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Scott Barlow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 24.7% | 12.3% | 2.6% | — | 5.24 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 142 | +0.85 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 76 | +0.32 | 3.10 | 197 | 70 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 69 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.38 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .238 | 3.77 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.61 | 1.97 | 268 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 67 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 63 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 63 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 62 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.56 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 1.8% | .313 | 3.91 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.35 | 2.47 | 332 | 62 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 62 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 62 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 62 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 61 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 61 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% | .340 | 3.31 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 252 | 61 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 61 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.