Andrés Machado projections, WAR, contract

Andrés Machado P Washington Nationals

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 232 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.47

FIP4.39

K%23.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

CH+6.4

SL-1.0

FB-7.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	23	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	13	59	260	64	14	5	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	2.7%	3.99	4.02	—
2016	23	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	13	59	260	64	14	5	100%	4.5	24.6%	5.4%	19.2%	1.9%	3.99	2.74	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	16	115	506	112	34	16	52%	3.7	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	4.1%	5.10	4.61	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	16	115	506	112	34	16	52%	3.7	22.1%	6.7%	15.4%	3.2%	5.10	3.85	+1.4
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	387	72	36	9	32%	2.2	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	2.6%	5.53	4.47	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	12	83	387	72	36	9	32%	2.2	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.3%	5.53	4.08	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	0	75	321	65	31	12	0%	1.7	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	4.0%	2.89	5.09	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	0	75	321	65	31	12	0%	1.7	20.2%	9.7%	10.6%	3.7%	2.89	4.69	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	50	221	49	18	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	2.3%	3.58	3.63	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	50	221	49	18	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.1%	14.0%	2.3%	3.58	3.52	+0.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	76	333	64	31	7	0%	1.2	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	2.1%	3.89	3.87	+0.6
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	76	333	64	31	7	0%	1.2	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	2.1%	3.89	3.83	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	22.3%	5.0%	17.3%	4.0%	4.81	4.03	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	22.3%	5.0%	17.3%	4.0%	4.81	4.03	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	23.8%	5.2%	18.6%	4.0%	4.81	3.91	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			137	0	149	646	120	54	25	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	3.9%	4.48	4.76	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	3.3%	4.47	4.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	WSH	58	0	61	257	58	23	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.61	4.70	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	231	49	22	9	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.9%	4.86	5.03	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	WSH	55	0	58	245	55	22	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.61	4.70	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	48	0	50	211	45	20	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.9%	4.86	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		240	0	256	1100	220	96	42	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	859	172	75	33	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		308	41	536	2356	439	189	76	13%	1.7	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	15	200	879	164	70	28	13%	1.7	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrés Machado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	23.3%	8.5%	3.3%	—	4.86	21.9%	12.6%	116	+0.47	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	80
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	75
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	74
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	73
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	70
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	70
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	69
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	69
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	69
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	68
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	68
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	20.7%	8.9%	1.43	4.56
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01