Daniel Mengden prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Mengden P Rochester Red Wings

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.54

FIP4.63

K%20.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p1617.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CT+0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	131	554	125	36	11	85%	5.0	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	1.5%	3.72	3.45	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	131	554	125	36	11	85%	5.0	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.11	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	170	719	166	61	13	100%	5.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	2.1%	3.59	3.56	+2.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	170	719	166	61	13	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	1.8%	3.59	3.22	+3.6
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	89	368	78	30	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	3.7%	3.44	4.59	+0.3
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	89	368	78	30	11	100%	4.9	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	3.0%	3.44	3.97	+1.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	161	658	106	33	20	81%	5.2	15.5%	5.1%	10.4%	3.3%	3.75	4.27	+1.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	161	658	106	33	20	81%	5.2	16.1%	5.0%	11.1%	3.0%	3.75	4.01	+1.7
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	124	530	103	45	15	73%	4.8	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.28	+0.9
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	124	530	103	45	15	73%	4.8	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.10	+1.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	4	1	12	58	10	7	2	25%	3.1	17.2%	12.1%	5.2%	3.8%	3.65	5.25	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	4	1	12	58	10	7	2	25%	3.1	17.2%	12.1%	5.2%	3.4%	3.65	5.29	-0.1
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	116	505	101	57	25	70%	3.9	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	5.7%	5.20	6.33	-1.8
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	116	505	101	57	25	70%	3.9	20.0%	11.3%	8.7%	5.0%	5.20	5.63	-1.0
2023	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.1%	7.25	4.32	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.1%	7.25	4.32	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	2.0%	7.25	4.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	49	310	1327	232	103	43	75%	4.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.40	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	49	206	40	21	7	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.77	4.93	-0.0
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	44	185	34	20	7	100%	6.2	18.3%	10.7%	7.6%	3.6%	5.07	5.27	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.77	4.93	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	10.7%	7.6%	3.6%	5.07	5.27	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	50	313	1340	235	104	43	76%	4.7	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.39	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	32	200	857	150	66	27	76%	4.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		194	143	853	3636	648	309	111	74%	4.4	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.34	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	853	152	73	26	74%	4.4	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.34	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Mengden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.2%	9.7%	3.0%	—	5.09	18.8%	8.4%	92	+0.46	—	—	—
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	66
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	66
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	64
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	63
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	63
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	63
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	62
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	62
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	61
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	61
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	61
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	60
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	59
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	59
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	59
Salvador Valdez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	12.8%	7.5%	1.1%	.310	3.99	11.5%	4.9%	138	+0.39	3.60	326	59
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	59
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	58
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	65	18.1%	8.5%	1.26	4.69
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72