Nick Burdi

P Syracuse Mets

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	30	27	2.36	3.62	30.8%	17.1%	0.3	K 28.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.22
2025	32	MIX2 levels	35	40	2.45	2.28	29.2%	10.5%	1.1	K 25.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.55
2026	33	AAANYM	5	4	2.08	3.79	17.6%	17.6%	—	K 17.6% · BB 17.6% · FIP 3.85
2027PROJ	34	MLBNYM	15	16	4.04	4.04	25.5%	9.8%	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBNYM	1	1	4.25	4.38	24.7%	10.3%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 33) · Neil Wagner (age 33) · Diego Moreno (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%25.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

SL+0.9 (31%)

CH (2%)

SI (43%)

FB (66%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	64	278	83	35	4	0%	1.5	23.8%	13.9%	9.9%	1.5%	3.82	3.65	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	64	278	83	35	4	0%	1.5	29.9%	12.6%	17.3%	1.4%	3.82	2.96	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	0	3	14	1	1	0	0%	1.0	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.40	—
2016	23	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	0	3	14	1	1	0	0%	1.0	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.43	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	17	61	20	3	1	0%	1.2	26.6%	5.4%	21.1%	2.0%	0.53	2.65	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	17	61	20	3	1	0%	1.2	32.8%	4.9%	27.9%	1.6%	0.53	2.04	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	2	12	64	16	8	2	17%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.1%	7.30	4.29	+0.0
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	2	12	64	16	8	2	17%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.1%	7.30	4.56	-0.0
2019	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	0	9	40	17	3	1	0%	0.8	42.5%	7.5%	35.0%	2.5%	9.35	1.83	+0.3
2019	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	0	9	40	17	3	1	0%	0.8	42.5%	7.5%	35.0%	2.5%	9.35	1.72	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	10	4	2	0	0%	0.8	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	3.86	2.26	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	10	4	2	0	0%	0.8	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	3.86	2.24	+0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	24	115	39	18	2	0%	0.9	31.2%	13.8%	17.3%	1.3%	4.50	2.91	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	24	115	39	18	2	0%	0.9	33.9%	15.7%	18.3%	1.7%	4.50	3.18	+0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	117	36	20	2	0%	0.9	28.7%	13.8%	14.9%	1.5%	2.36	3.22	+0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	117	36	20	2	0%	0.9	28.7%	13.8%	14.9%	1.5%	2.36	3.22	+0.4
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	27	117	36	20	2	0%	0.9	30.8%	17.1%	13.7%	1.7%	2.36	3.62	+0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	171	50	18	1	0%	1.2	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	0.7%	2.45	2.55	+1.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	171	50	18	1	0%	1.2	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	0.7%	2.45	2.55	+1.0
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	40	171	50	18	1	0%	1.2	29.2%	10.5%	18.7%	0.6%	2.45	2.28	+1.1
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	5	0	4	17	3	3	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.85	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	5	0	4	17	3	3	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.85	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	5	0	4	17	3	3	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.79	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	0	30	141	44	21	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	14.9%	16.3%	2.1%	5.34	3.56	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	NYM	15	0	16	68	17	7	2	0%	1.1	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	21	9	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	4.38	+0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYM	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	0	31	146	45	21	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	14.7%	16.3%	2.2%	5.30	3.53	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		229	0	200	927	286	134	19	0%	0.9	31.0%	14.7%	16.3%	2.2%	5.30	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		182	2	202	887	237	107	13	1%	1.1	26.7%	12.1%	14.6%	1.4%	3.65	3.17	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	2	200	877	234	106	13	1%	1.1	26.7%	12.1%	14.6%	1.4%	3.65	3.17	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Burdi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	25.5%	9.8%	2.7%	—	4.38	24.7%	14.4%	20	+0.34	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	75
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	73
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	71
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	70
Jay Jackson R 2022 · 2.98 FIP	34	SU	2.98	27.5%	5.3%	2.8%	.327	4.83	26.2%	20.2%	85	+1.85	2.36	261	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	70
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	69
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	68
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	67
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	65
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	65
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	64
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	64
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	64
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	63
Roy Corcoran R 2015 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	17.7%	8.2%	0.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	129	63
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	63
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	63
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	28.0%	12.4%	0.98	4.70
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Marshall Bridges ('59-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	49	26.7%*	12.3%*	0.88*	4.15*