Marco Gonzales
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.0
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA4.70
FIP4.54
xFIP4.80
SIERA4.96
K%19.7%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%11.2%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD3535
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p1017.8%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
CT+1.1 (24%)
SI (9%)
CU (10%)
CH-1.9 (25%)
FB-2.2 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 19 | 19 | 83 | 375 | 62 | 24 | 11 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 25 | 22 | 126 | 526 | 105 | 33 | 15 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 167 | 686 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 21.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.15 | +4.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 34 | 34 | 203 | 866 | 147 | 55 | 23 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.99 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 11 | 11 | 70 | 277 | 64 | 7 | 8 | 23.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.10 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 25 | 25 | 143 | 585 | 108 | 39 | 29 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.96 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 183 | 783 | 103 | 49 | 30 | 13.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.13 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 50 | 215 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 5.22 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 9 | 41 | 187 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 14 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 7.90 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 40 | 181 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 14.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 23 | — | 23 | 98 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 15.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 197 | 194 | 1080 | 4570 | 785 | 279 | 146 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 846 | 145 | 52 | 27 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marco Gonzales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.01 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 23 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.59 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 75 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 75 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 74 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 72 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 71 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 69 |
| Dana Eveland L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 69 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 69 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 68 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 16.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | .182 | 3.44 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 75 | -1.40 | 2.41 | 215 | 67 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 67 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 127 | 66 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 65 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.66 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 63 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 63 |
| J.P. Howell L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.97 | 11.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 106 | 63 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.10 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 417 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.