Marco Gonzales

P Round Rock Express

Age 35 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MLBSEA	10	10	50	5.22	4.12	15.8%	8.4%	0.8
2024	32	MIX2 levels	9	9	41	4.83	4.76	15.5%	8.6%	0.3	K 15.2% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.70
2026	34	MIX2 levels	21	17	76	7.14	5.41	13.4%	7.1%	-0.0	K 11.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	35	MLBTEX	26	26	154	5.07	5.44	11.1%	6.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ	36	MLBTEX	16	16	98	5.51	5.81	10.0%	7.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ	37	MLBTEX	12	12	73	5.88	6.12	10.0%	7.8%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsChris Michalak (age 35) · Jorge Castillo (age 35) · Tomas Solis (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.07

FIP5.44

K%11.1%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.7

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	10	5	35	156	31	20	4	50%	3.5	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	2.8%	4.15	4.56	+0.3
2014	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	10	5	35	156	31	20	4	50%	3.5	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	2.6%	4.15	4.54	+0.3
2015	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	83	375	62	24	11	100%	4.4	14.4%	7.7%	6.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.45	+0.9
2015	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	83	375	62	24	11	100%	4.4	16.5%	6.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.19	+1.2
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	126	526	105	33	15	88%	5.1	17.8%	6.7%	11.1%	3.0%	3.99	4.08	+2.0
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	126	526	105	33	15	88%	5.1	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	2.9%	3.99	3.76	+2.5
2018	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	167	686	145	32	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	4.7%	16.5%	2.5%	4.00	3.30	+4.3
2018	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	29	29	167	686	145	32	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	4.7%	16.5%	2.5%	4.00	3.26	+4.4
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	34	34	203	866	147	55	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.97	+3.5
2019	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	34	34	203	866	147	55	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+3.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	11	11	70	277	64	7	8	100%	6.3	23.1%	2.5%	20.6%	3.0%	3.10	3.09	+2.0
2020	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	11	11	70	277	64	7	8	100%	6.3	23.1%	2.5%	20.6%	2.9%	3.10	3.06	+2.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	143	585	108	39	29	100%	5.7	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	5.1%	3.96	5.18	+0.4
2021	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	25	25	143	585	108	39	29	100%	5.7	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	5.0%	3.96	5.04	+0.6
2022	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	183	783	103	49	30	100%	5.7	13.2%	6.3%	6.9%	3.9%	4.13	4.94	+1.0
2022	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	183	783	103	49	30	100%	5.7	13.2%	6.3%	6.9%	3.8%	4.13	4.91	+1.0
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	10	10	50	215	34	18	5	100%	5.0	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	2.4%	5.22	4.13	+0.7
2023	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	10	10	50	215	34	18	5	100%	5.0	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	2.3%	5.22	4.12	+0.8
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.6%	4.83	4.70	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.6%	4.83	4.70	+0.3
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.5%	8.6%	7.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.76	+0.3
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	76	365	49	26	15	81%	3.6	11.8%	6.2%	5.6%	4.9%	7.14	5.58	-0.2
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	76	365	49	26	15	81%	3.6	11.8%	6.2%	5.6%	4.9%	7.14	5.58	-0.2
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	76	365	49	26	15	81%	3.6	13.4%	7.1%	6.3%	4.1%	7.14	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			173	162	933	3949	691	246	130	94%	5.4	17.5%	6.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.14	4.22	+13.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	TEX	26	26	154	650	72	42	24	100%	5.9	11.1%	6.5%	4.5%	3.8%	5.07	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	415	42	30	17	100%	6.1	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	4.1%	5.51	5.81	-0.4
2029	37	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	73	309	31	24	14	100%	6.1	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	4.6%	5.88	6.12	-0.6
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	98	414	41	29	17	100%	6.1	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	4.1%	5.51	5.81	-0.4
2029	37	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	31	24	14	100%	6.1	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	4.6%	5.88	6.12	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	191	1105	4673	763	299	161	95%	5.5	16.3%	6.4%	9.9%	3.5%	4.37	4.43	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	846	138	54	29	95%	5.5	16.3%	6.4%	9.9%	3.5%	4.37	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		225	213	1177	5021	851	321	170	95%	5.2	16.9%	6.4%	10.6%	3.4%	4.31	4.34	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	853	145	54	29	95%	5.2	16.9%	6.4%	10.6%	3.4%	4.31	4.34	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 69 IPFIP 5.26 → 5.58 (+0.32)K% 13.7% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.69%	—	×0.860	11.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×0.900	6.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.91%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.26 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 7 IPFIP 4.98 → 5.32 (+0.34)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×0.900	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.36%

Result: FIP 4.98 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAATacoma Rainiers · 80 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.66 (+0.40)K% 20.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.56%	—	×0.880	18.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.050	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷0.963	×1.100	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.99 (+2.10)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.770	26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.824	×1.250	7.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 69 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.45 (+0.03)K% 16.3% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.35%	—	×0.880	14.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.050	7.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.224	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 7 IPFIP 1.22 → 1.58 (+0.36)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.140	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 1.22 → 1.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 5 IPFIP 1.41 → 1.80 (+0.39)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.41 → 1.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marco Gonzales (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.8%	—	5.94	10.0%	2.6%	172	+0.50	—	—	—
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	64
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	63
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	60
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	58
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	56
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	51
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	46
Andrew Albers L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	35	SP	4.60	16.9%	3.7%	4.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	568	41
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	34
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	33
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	33
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	27
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	27
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	27
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	27
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	27
Luis Mendoza R 2019 · 5.10 FIP	35	SP	5.10	9.7%	4.2%	4.2%	.378	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	374	26
Hector Ambriz R 2019 · 6.40 FIP	35	SP	6.40	10.4%	7.5%	5.9%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	2.24	259	25
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	24
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	105	15.7%	6.6%	1.35	4.46
Vern Ruhle ('74-'86, 9 WAR*)	7.1	109	14.2%*	5.8%*	1.18*	4.36*
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Paul Byrd ('09)	8.5	121	12.7%	5.5%	1.31	4.41