Marco Gonzales
P
Round Rock Express
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125134vR 143
ERA4.73
FIP4.93
K%14.4%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p1017.8%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
CT+1.1 (24%)
SI (9%)
CU (10%)
CH-1.9 (25%)
FB-2.2 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 19 | 83 | 375 | 62 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.97 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 19 | 83 | 375 | 62 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 22 | 126 | 526 | 105 | 33 | 15 | 88% | 5.1 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 22 | 126 | 526 | 105 | 33 | 15 | 88% | 5.1 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 3.76 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 167 | 686 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.1% | 4.7% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 3.34 | +4.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 167 | 686 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.1% | 4.7% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 3.26 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 34 | 34 | 203 | 866 | 147 | 55 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.01 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 34 | 34 | 203 | 866 | 147 | 55 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 11 | 11 | 70 | 277 | 64 | 7 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 2.5% | 20.6% | 3.0% | 3.10 | 3.14 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 11 | 11 | 70 | 277 | 64 | 7 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 2.5% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 3.06 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 25 | 25 | 143 | 585 | 108 | 39 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 3.96 | 5.25 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 25 | 25 | 143 | 585 | 108 | 39 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 3.96 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 183 | 783 | 103 | 49 | 30 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 4.13 | 5.00 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 183 | 783 | 103 | 49 | 30 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.13 | 4.91 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 50 | 215 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 5.22 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 50 | 215 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 5.22 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 41 | 187 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 41 | 187 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 29 | 27 | 106 | 534 | 78 | 40 | 20 | 93% | 3.7 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 8.38 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 162 | 767 | 112 | 58 | 27 | — | — | 14.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 7.13 | 5.16 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 6 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 14.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 50 | 209 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.40 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.40 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 177 | 174 | 991 | 4182 | 711 | 259 | 141 | 98% | 5.6 | 17.0% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 143 | 52 | 28 | 98% | 5.6 | 17.0% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 223 | 218 | 1173 | 5034 | 846 | 320 | 171 | 98% | 5.3 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.36 | +14.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 859 | 144 | 55 | 29 | 98% | 5.3 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marco Gonzales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.43 | 12.9% | 4.2% | 94 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 72 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2024 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.56 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 70 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 69 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 68 |
| Eric Stults L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 68 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 4.40 | 12.2% | 1.8% | 103 | -0.36 | 4.40 | 249 | 67 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 67 |
| Everett Teaford L 2023 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 63 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 63 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 62 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 62 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 62 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 62 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 61 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.86 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | .322 | 7.02 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +1.16 | 4.35 | 327 | 60 |
| Barry Zito L 2029 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 59 |
| James Russell L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 233 | 58 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.04 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.80 | 3.07 | 650 | 57 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.70 | 13.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | .246 | 5.03 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 179 | +0.33 | 4.40 | 408 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 50 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 1.30 | 5.03 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |