Marco Gonzales — OGILVIE

Marco Gonzales P Round Rock Express

Age 34 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA4.39

FIP4.59

K%14.0%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5560

CMD5055

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.7

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

CT+1.1 (24%)

SI (9%)

CU (10%)

CH-1.9 (25%)

FB-2.2 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	83	375	62	24	11	100%	4.4	14.4%	7.7%	6.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.45	+0.4
2015	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	83	375	62	24	11	100%	4.4	16.5%	6.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.19	+0.7
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	126	526	105	33	15	88%	5.1	17.8%	6.7%	11.1%	3.0%	3.99	4.08	+1.2
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	126	526	105	33	15	88%	5.1	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	2.9%	3.99	3.76	+1.7
2018	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	167	686	145	32	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	4.7%	16.5%	2.5%	4.00	3.30	+3.3
2018	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	29	29	167	686	145	32	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	4.7%	16.5%	2.5%	4.00	3.26	+3.4
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	34	34	203	866	147	55	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.97	+2.3
2019	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	34	34	203	866	147	55	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+2.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	11	11	70	277	64	7	8	100%	6.3	23.1%	2.5%	20.6%	3.0%	3.10	3.09	+1.6
2020	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	11	11	70	277	64	7	8	100%	6.3	23.1%	2.5%	20.6%	2.9%	3.10	3.06	+1.6
2021	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	143	585	108	39	29	100%	5.7	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	5.1%	3.96	5.18	-0.4
2021	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	25	25	143	585	108	39	29	100%	5.7	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	5.0%	3.96	5.04	-0.2
2022	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	183	783	103	49	30	100%	5.7	13.2%	6.3%	6.9%	3.9%	4.13	4.94	-0.1
2022	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	183	783	103	49	30	100%	5.7	13.2%	6.3%	6.9%	3.8%	4.13	4.91	-0.0
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	10	10	50	215	34	18	5	100%	5.0	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	2.4%	5.22	4.13	+0.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	10	10	50	215	34	18	5	100%	5.0	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	2.4%	5.22	4.13	+0.5
2023	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	10	10	50	215	34	18	5	100%	5.0	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	2.3%	5.22	4.12	+0.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.6%	4.83	4.70	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.6%	4.83	4.70	+0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	41	187	29	16	6	100%	4.6	15.5%	8.6%	7.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			163	157	899	3793	660	226	126	96%	5.5	17.4%	6.0%	11.4%	3.3%	4.14	4.21	+7.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	21	17	76	365	49	26	15	81%	3.6	11.4%	6.2%	5.2%	4.9%	7.14	5.62	—
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	21	17	76	365	49	26	15	81%	3.6	11.4%	6.2%	5.2%	4.9%	7.14	5.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	TEX	18	17	69	336	46	23	15	94%	3.8	13.7%	6.8%	6.8%	4.5%	7.70	5.26	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	TEX	3	0	7	29	3	3	0	0%	2.2	10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	0.0%	1.35	3.54	—
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	TEX	3	0	7	29	3	3	0	0%	2.2	10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	0.0%	1.35	3.54	—
ROS	34	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	6	26	4	2	1	100%	6.2	14.0%	7.7%	6.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.59	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.0%	7.7%	6.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.59	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	82	391	53	28	16	—	—	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	4.0%	6.93	5.54	-0.7
FULL	34	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	13	54	53	28	16	—	—	96.9%	51.6%	45.3%	29.1%	44.06	17.41	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	66	279	36	24	9	100%	6.0	13.0%	8.6%	4.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.24	-0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	58	247	30	23	9	100%	5.8	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	3.6%	5.38	5.61	-0.5
2027	35	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	66	279	36	24	9	100%	6.0	13.0%	8.6%	4.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.24	-0.3
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	58	245	29	23	9	100%	5.8	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	3.6%	5.38	5.61	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	179	1029	4345	730	275	145	97%	5.6	16.8%	6.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.27	4.31	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	844	142	53	28	97%	5.6	16.8%	6.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.27	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		215	208	1142	4865	819	301	166	97%	5.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.32	4.33	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	852	143	53	29	97%	5.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.32	4.33	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marco Gonzales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	14.3%	7.9%	3.1%	—	5.41	12.5%	3.7%	125	+0.47	—	—	—
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	74
Jonathon Niese L 2019 · 5.67 FIP	32	SP	5.67	10.9%	8.2%	4.5%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	368	71
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	71
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	70
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.59	249	70
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	70
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	3.48	138	69
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	66
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	65
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	65
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	64
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	64
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	63
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	63
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	62
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	61
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	60
Jorge Castillo L 2016 · 4.94 FIP	34	SP	4.94	13.0%	4.6%	4.3%	.246	4.93	16.8%	9.2%	179	-0.01	4.50	408	59
James Russell L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	16.2%	3.2%	3.9%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	233	59
Andrew Albers L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	35	SP	4.60	16.9%	3.7%	4.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	508	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	13.2%	8.5%	1.27	5.03
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78