Richard Rodríguez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Richard Rodríguez P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.39

K%21.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1420.2%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

FB+10.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	84	339	74	18	8	0%	1.8	18.7%	5.6%	13.1%	2.4%	2.47	3.53	—
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	84	339	74	18	8	0%	1.8	21.8%	5.3%	16.5%	2.4%	2.47	3.22	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	48	2	82	333	81	22	5	4%	1.7	21.4%	6.9%	14.5%	2.1%	2.53	3.34	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	48	2	82	333	81	22	5	4%	1.7	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	1.5%	2.53	2.72	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	76	316	83	19	9	2%	1.6	24.7%	6.3%	18.4%	2.2%	3.30	3.03	+1.4
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	76	316	83	19	9	2%	1.6	26.3%	6.0%	20.3%	2.8%	3.30	3.20	+1.2
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	74	297	97	18	5	0%	1.1	31.5%	5.7%	25.8%	1.9%	2.30	2.23	+2.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	74	297	97	18	5	0%	1.1	32.7%	6.1%	26.6%	1.7%	2.30	2.09	+2.2
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	68	296	66	20	15	0%	0.9	22.1%	7.0%	15.1%	5.3%	3.69	5.04	-0.4
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	74	0	68	296	66	20	15	0%	0.9	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	5.1%	3.69	4.90	-0.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	0	23	93	34	5	3	0%	1.0	36.6%	5.4%	31.2%	3.5%	2.70	2.61	+0.5
2020	30	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	0	23	93	34	5	3	0%	1.0	36.6%	5.4%	31.2%	3.2%	2.70	2.50	+0.6
2021	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	64	0	64	251	42	9	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	3.6%	13.1%	3.2%	2.94	3.89	+0.5
2021	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	64	0	64	251	42	9	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	3.6%	13.1%	3.2%	2.94	3.83	+0.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	25	102	26	7	4	6%	1.4	22.5%	7.8%	14.6%	3.5%	3.96	4.11	—
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	1	25	102	26	7	4	6%	1.4	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	3.9%	3.96	3.94	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	39	0	64	273	43	19	5	0%	1.6	13.5%	6.3%	7.3%	2.0%	4.38	3.82	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	39	0	64	273	43	19	5	0%	1.6	13.5%	6.3%	7.3%	2.0%	4.38	3.82	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	39	0	64	273	43	19	5	0%	1.6	15.8%	7.0%	8.8%	1.8%	4.38	3.67	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			228	0	228	939	230	52	34	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.5%	19.0%	3.6%	3.28	3.71	+2.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	MIA	50	0	52	221	44	20	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.0%	11.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.79	-0.1
2028	38	MLB MLE	MIA	43	0	45	190	36	18	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.9%	4.97	5.23	-0.3
2027	37	MLB CTX	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.0%	11.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.79	-0.0
2028	38	MLB CTX	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.9%	4.97	5.23	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	229	941	230	52	34	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.5%	18.9%	3.6%	3.28	3.72	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	824	201	46	30	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.5%	18.9%	3.6%	3.28	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		425	4	561	2300	508	139	64	1%	1.3	22.1%	6.0%	16.0%	2.8%	3.07	3.52	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	1	200	820	181	50	23	1%	1.3	22.1%	6.0%	16.0%	2.8%	3.07	3.52	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.1%	8.3%	3.0%	—	4.99	19.5%	10.2%	97	+0.60	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	76
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	70
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	67
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	65
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	65
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	64
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	64
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	64
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	63
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	63
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	61
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	60
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	59
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	56
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	54
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	51
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	55	22.7%	7.4%	1.36	3.81
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Matt Bush ('23)	1.1	53	25.2%	8.0%	1.41	3.75
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Jarlín García ('22)	1.6	64	19.6%	7.9%	1.26	3.61
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03