Ben Holmes prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ben Holmes P Birmingham Barons

Age 34 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%23.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	129	563	100	47	11	89%	4.8	13.3%	9.8%	3.5%	2.0%	4.55	4.33	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	129	563	100	47	11	89%	4.8	17.8%	8.3%	9.4%	2.0%	4.55	3.75	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	91	354	79	31	4	3%	2.6	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	1.1%	1.18	3.56	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	91	354	79	31	4	3%	2.6	22.3%	8.8%	13.6%	1.1%	1.18	2.96	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	35	7	73	313	63	18	2	20%	2.1	15.5%	6.6%	8.9%	0.8%	4.17	3.09	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	35	7	73	313	63	18	2	20%	2.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.4%	0.6%	4.17	2.47	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	67	266	64	22	6	45%	3.3	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	2.5%	2.83	4.02	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	9	67	266	64	22	6	45%	3.3	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	2.3%	2.83	3.34	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	61	277	64	29	12	100%	4.4	19.7%	11.1%	8.6%	5.0%	5.31	5.57	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	61	277	64	29	12	100%	4.4	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	4.3%	5.31	4.99	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	2	2	10	43	9	8	3	100%	4.8	20.9%	18.6%	2.3%	7.0%	6.52	7.52	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	2	2	10	43	9	8	3	100%	4.8	20.9%	18.6%	2.3%	7.0%	6.52	7.76	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	161	42	18	7	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	5.7%	5.25	5.27	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	161	42	18	7	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	5.7%	5.25	5.27	—
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	161	42	18	7	0%	1.2	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	4.3%	5.25	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	3.4%	4.49	4.61	-0.0
2027	35	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	3.4%	4.49	4.61	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		164	57	467	1977	335	188	50	35%	2.8	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.6%	3.78	4.27	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	24	200	847	144	81	22	35%	2.8	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.6%	3.78	4.27	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Holmes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	23.4%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.61	22.8%	13.4%	20	+0.30	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	66
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	63
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	62
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	60
John Bale L 2008 · 3.22 FIP	34	SW	3.22	12.7%	5.5%	0.9%	.315	4.31	17.6%	5.8%	28	+1.09	2.49	168	57
James Jones L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	34	SU	4.67	13.7%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	55
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	53
Pedro Borbón L 2002 · 4.57 FIP	34	SU	4.57	21.6%	7.3%	4.3%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	264	52
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	52
Carlos Pulido L 2004 · 4.41 FIP	32	SU	4.41	16.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	111	51
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	49
Tim Byrdak L 2008 · 5.18 FIP	34	SU	5.18	19.8%	11.4%	4.2%	.229	4.30	22.4%	10.5%	138	-0.88	2.85	320	49
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	48
Tom Martin L 2004 · 4.74 FIP	34	SU	4.74	14.7%	7.8%	3.4%	.278	3.96	14.7%	7.1%	86	-0.78	3.40	303	48
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	187	48
Joey Eischen L 2004 · 3.63 FIP	34	SU	3.63	21.2%	7.5%	2.5%	.255	3.37	19.0%	9.1%	51	-0.26	2.13	294	47
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	47
Jamie Walker L 2005 · 3.81 FIP	34	SU	3.81	14.4%	4.8%	2.4%	.270	4.46	16.3%	12.2%	147	+0.65	3.48	442	42
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	41
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	41