Heath Hembree prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Heath Hembree P Everett AquaSox

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.37

K%23.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

SL+1.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2013	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	9	0	8	29	12	2	0	0%	0.9	41.4%	6.9%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.48	+0.4
2013	24	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	9	0	8	29	12	2	0	0%	0.9	41.4%	6.9%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.75	+0.4
2014	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	6	0	10	43	6	3	1	0%	1.7	14.0%	7.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.08	+0.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	6	0	10	43	6	3	1	0%	1.7	14.0%	7.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.10	+0.1
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	58	239	47	17	6	2%	1.1	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.7%	2.79	3.95	+0.4
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	58	239	47	17	6	2%	1.1	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	2.5%	2.79	3.70	+0.6
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	272	69	19	6	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	2.8%	2.24	3.74	+0.6
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	272	69	19	6	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	2.2%	2.24	3.05	+1.2
2017	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	271	70	18	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.6%	19.2%	3.8%	3.63	3.84	+0.5
2017	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	271	70	18	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.6%	19.2%	3.7%	3.63	3.81	+0.5
2018	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	67	0	60	260	76	26	10	0%	0.9	29.2%	10.0%	19.2%	3.9%	4.20	4.06	+0.3
2018	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	67	0	60	260	76	26	10	0%	0.9	29.2%	10.0%	19.2%	3.8%	4.20	4.03	+0.4
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	41	177	48	16	7	0%	0.9	26.6%	9.2%	17.3%	4.1%	3.76	4.30	+0.1
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	41	177	48	16	7	0%	0.9	27.1%	9.0%	18.1%	4.0%	3.76	4.16	+0.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	22	0	19	90	20	8	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	9.3%	9.00	7.47	-0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	22	0	19	90	20	8	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	10.0%	9.00	8.42	-0.9
2021	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	60	0	58	243	83	23	12	0%	1.0	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	5.0%	5.59	4.13	+0.3
2021	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	60	0	58	243	83	23	12	0%	1.0	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	4.9%	5.59	4.12	+0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	35	163	38	20	9	0%	0.9	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	5.4%	6.62	6.49	-0.8
2022	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	35	163	38	20	9	0%	0.9	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	5.5%	6.62	5.96	-0.6
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	0.0%	1.88	2.52	+0.3
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	0.0%	1.88	2.52	+0.3
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.5%	14.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.33	+0.4
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.54	—
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.54	—
2024	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			358	0	356	1549	394	135	66	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	4.3%	4.37	4.43	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	SEA	41	0	43	182	41	18	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.80	-0.1
2027	38	MLB CTX	SEA	41	0	43	182	41	18	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		399	0	399	1731	435	153	72	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	4.2%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	867	218	77	36	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	4.2%	4.40	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		439	4	438	1886	468	167	74	1%	1.0	24.8%	8.9%	16.0%	3.9%	4.05	4.28	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		201	2	200	862	214	76	34	1%	1.0	24.8%	8.9%	16.0%	3.9%	4.05	4.28	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Heath Hembree (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	23.5%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.80	22.4%	12.4%	43	+0.43	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	72
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	67
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	65
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	62
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	62
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	61
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	59
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	58
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	56
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	56
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	50
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	49
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	37
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	34
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	33
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	30
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	30

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	50	24.9%	9.5%	1.57	4.40
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Tony Sipp ('19)	2.5	46	25.2%	10.5%	1.32	3.72
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17