Austin Brice prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Austin Brice P St. Paul Saints

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 144 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.44

K%23.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP144

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

SL+1.9

FB-0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	25	25	125	556	127	69	11	100%	5.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.9%	2.4%	4.67	4.61	—
2015	23	AA RAW	Jacksonville Suns	25	25	125	556	127	69	11	100%	5.0	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	2.0%	4.67	3.87	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	13	116	471	103	34	8	28%	2.5	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	1.4%	3.26	3.42	+1.6
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	13	116	471	103	34	8	28%	2.5	21.9%	7.2%	14.6%	1.7%	3.26	3.10	+2.0
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	57	244	50	15	6	0%	1.4	19.3%	6.2%	13.0%	2.4%	4.26	3.58	+0.7
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	57	244	50	15	6	0%	1.4	20.5%	6.1%	14.3%	2.5%	4.26	3.50	+0.7
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	61	249	56	14	11	0%	1.2	21.3%	5.8%	15.6%	4.2%	4.45	4.36	+0.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	61	249	56	14	11	0%	1.2	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	4.4%	4.45	4.30	+0.2
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	50	219	55	16	7	2%	1.3	23.1%	8.0%	15.1%	3.7%	3.22	4.20	+0.2
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	50	219	55	16	7	2%	1.3	25.1%	7.3%	17.8%	3.2%	3.22	3.68	+0.5
2020	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	21	1	20	87	25	13	3	5%	0.9	28.7%	14.9%	13.8%	3.5%	5.95	4.51	+0.0
2020	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	21	1	20	87	25	13	3	5%	0.9	28.7%	14.9%	13.8%	3.4%	5.95	4.52	+0.0
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	47	206	46	21	6	5%	1.2	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.24	4.15	+0.2
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	47	206	46	21	6	5%	1.2	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.15	+0.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	50	226	58	17	7	5%	1.2	23.4%	7.4%	16.1%	3.8%	5.36	4.15	+0.2
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	50	226	58	17	7	5%	1.2	25.7%	7.5%	18.1%	3.1%	5.36	3.62	+0.6
2023	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	37	0	40	190	43	27	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.8%	6.7%	2.3%	6.92	4.34	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	37	0	40	190	43	27	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.8%	6.7%	2.3%	6.92	4.34	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	37	0	40	190	43	27	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	14.2%	8.4%	2.1%	6.92	4.27	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	15	88	29	22	0	0%	0.9	33.0%	25.0%	8.0%	0.0%	12.00	3.48	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	15	88	29	22	0	0%	0.9	33.0%	25.0%	8.0%	0.0%	12.00	3.48	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	15	88	29	22	0	0%	0.9	33.0%	25.0%	8.0%	0.0%	12.00	3.63	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			144	1	169	735	160	57	29	1%	1.2	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.9%	5.12	4.45	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	MIN	124	0	130	551	121	58	18	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.63	4.77	-0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIN	110	0	115	487	102	55	18	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	3.7%	4.94	5.14	-0.8
2027	35	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.63	4.77	—
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	3.7%	4.94	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	1	169	735	160	57	29	1%	1.2	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.9%	5.12	4.41	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	1	200	872	190	68	34	1%	1.2	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.9%	5.12	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		357	44	581	2536	522	259	66	12%	1.6	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.61	4.09	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	15	200	872	180	89	23	12%	1.6	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.61	4.09	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Brice (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	23.0%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.94	21.6%	10.7%	246	+0.50	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	63
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	62
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	61
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	60
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	60
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	60
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	59
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	59
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	58
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	58
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	58
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	57
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	57
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	57
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	56
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	56
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	56
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	55
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	93	22.0%	10.1%	1.35	4.79
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11