Shane Greene prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Shane Greene P Round Rock Express

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.28

FIP4.36

K%22.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CT+1.0

FB-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	15	14	79	345	81	29	8	93%	5.2	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.2%	3.78	3.37	+1.5
2014	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	15	14	79	345	81	29	8	93%	5.2	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.3%	3.78	3.47	+1.4
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	119	525	71	34	15	92%	4.7	13.0%	6.6%	6.5%	3.0%	5.99	4.50	+0.5
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	119	525	71	34	15	92%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	2.9%	5.99	4.41	+0.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	6	71	301	76	22	4	11%	1.3	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	1.2%	5.05	2.86	+1.4
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	6	71	301	76	22	4	11%	1.3	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	1.3%	5.05	2.62	+1.7
2017	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	71	0	68	283	73	30	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.2%	2.66	3.48	+0.9
2017	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	71	0	68	283	73	30	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.66	3.43	+0.9
2018	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	0	63	279	65	18	12	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	4.5%	5.12	4.42	+0.1
2018	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	0	63	279	65	18	12	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	4.3%	5.12	4.36	+0.1
2019	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	65	0	63	252	64	16	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	3.2%	2.30	3.50	+0.8
2019	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	65	0	63	252	64	16	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	3.2%	2.30	3.48	+0.8
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	0	28	109	21	8	2	0%	1.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.8%	2.60	3.41	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	28	0	28	109	21	8	2	0%	1.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.8%	2.60	3.39	+0.4
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	28	132	29	16	6	0%	0.9	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	5.1%	6.43	5.67	-0.4
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	28	132	29	16	6	0%	0.9	22.0%	12.1%	9.8%	4.5%	6.43	5.53	-0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	37	176	41	20	4	0%	1.3	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.0%	5.54	3.98	+0.3
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	37	176	41	20	4	0%	1.3	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	2.3%	5.54	3.90	+0.3
2023	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.1%	1.67	3.70	+0.5
2023	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.1%	1.67	3.70	+0.5
2023	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	1.4%	1.67	3.10	+0.7
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	4.82	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	4.82	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	5.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			345	33	474	2035	442	162	59	10%	1.4	21.7%	8.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.50	3.88	+3.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	182	40	18	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.80	-0.1
2027	38	MLB CTX	TEX	41	0	43	182	40	18	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		386	33	517	2217	482	180	65	9%	1.3	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.51	3.91	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	13	200	858	187	70	25	9%	1.3	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.51	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		404	51	596	2589	547	226	69	13%	1.5	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.47	3.88	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	17	200	869	184	76	23	13%	1.5	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.47	3.88	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.9%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.80	21.8%	11.8%	43	+0.44	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	79
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	75
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	70
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	67
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	65
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	64
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	64
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	62
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	60
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	53
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	52
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	51
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	44
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	43
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	39
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	35
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	57	21.8%	8.7%	1.14	4.49
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52