Matt Koch
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION35 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.58
FIP4.73
xFIP21.24
SIERA9.25
K%17.5%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%10.8%
IP36
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p1216.6%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
CT (57%)
SL-0.6 (13%)
FB-1.9 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | 36 | 9 | 96 | 396 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 12.5% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 3.37 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 23 | 139 | 582 | 84 | 22 | 11 | 12.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 3.81 | 3.53 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 10 | 45 | 219 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 10.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 9.00 | 5.86 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 25 | 141 | 591 | 81 | 33 | 30 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.85 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 17 | 121 | 560 | 90 | 34 | 29 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.68 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 34 | 4 | 63 | 276 | 52 | 29 | 11 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 5.83 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 42 | 0 | 43 | 175 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 68 | 2 | 73 | 321 | 61 | 20 | 14 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 6.14 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 51 | 0 | 54 | 246 | 38 | 8 | 11 | 13.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.30 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 330 | 90 | 775 | 3366 | 487 | 199 | 122 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 4.62 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 23 | 200 | 868 | 126 | 51 | 31 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Koch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 3.4% | — | 5.10 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 32 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 86 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 86 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 83 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 82 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.76 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.35 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.59 | 3.21 | 209 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 79 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 77 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 76 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 76 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 76 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.69 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 918 | 75 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.83 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.23 | 173 | 75 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 74 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 74 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.36 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 433 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.