Matt Koch
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.0
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.77
FIP4.54
xFIP21.24
SIERA9.25
K%19.4%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%12.7%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p1216.6%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
CT (57%)
SL-0.6 (13%)
FB-1.9 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | 36 | 9 | 96 | 396 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 12.5% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 3.20 | 3.46 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 23 | 139 | 582 | 84 | 22 | 11 | 12.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.81 | 3.64 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 10 | 45 | 219 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 10.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 9.00 | 5.98 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 25 | 141 | 591 | 81 | 33 | 30 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.85 | 5.66 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 17 | 121 | 560 | 90 | 34 | 29 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.68 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 34 | 4 | 63 | 276 | 52 | 29 | 11 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 5.83 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 42 | 0 | 43 | 175 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 3.59 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 68 | 2 | 73 | 321 | 61 | 20 | 14 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.14 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 51 | 0 | 54 | 246 | 38 | 8 | 11 | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.30 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 38 | 15 | 8 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 34 | 14 | 7 | 16.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 330 | 90 | 775 | 3366 | 487 | 199 | 133 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 4.80 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 23 | 200 | 868 | 126 | 51 | 34 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Koch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | — | 4.95 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 48 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 91 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 88 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 85 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 84 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 83 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 81 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 81 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 81 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 80 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 80 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 79 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 79 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 79 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 79 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 76 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.67 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 918 | 74 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.25 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 433 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.