Drew Hutchison prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Drew Hutchison P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.74

FIP4.73

K%20.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1014.7%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

SL-1.9

FB-3.2

CH-4.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2012	21	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	11	11	59	257	49	20	8	100%	5.3	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.60	4.18	+0.5
2012	21	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	11	11	59	257	49	20	8	100%	5.3	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.60	4.22	+0.5
2014	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	185	786	184	59	23	100%	5.8	23.4%	7.5%	15.9%	2.9%	4.48	3.68	+2.7
2014	23	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	185	786	184	59	23	100%	5.8	23.4%	7.5%	15.9%	2.9%	4.48	3.68	+2.7
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	29	154	680	133	47	23	94%	5.0	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	3.3%	5.54	4.12	+1.4
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	29	154	680	133	47	23	94%	5.0	19.6%	6.9%	12.6%	3.4%	5.54	4.23	+1.2
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	27	162	681	160	57	22	79%	4.8	21.1%	8.7%	12.3%	3.7%	3.83	4.47	+0.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	27	162	681	160	57	22	79%	4.8	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	3.2%	3.83	3.95	+1.8
2017	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	28	26	159	677	124	55	14	93%	5.7	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	2.7%	3.56	4.29	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	28	26	159	677	124	55	14	93%	5.7	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	2.1%	3.56	3.72	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	12	85	373	71	39	10	48%	3.4	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	2.6%	4.46	4.38	+0.2
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	12	85	373	71	39	10	48%	3.4	19.0%	10.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.34	+0.2
2019	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	25	23	131	584	133	53	20	92%	5.3	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.6%	5.28	4.57	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	25	23	131	584	133	53	20	92%	5.3	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.4%	5.28	4.26	—
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	110	470	99	52	9	75%	3.9	18.8%	11.5%	7.3%	2.0%	3.45	4.07	+1.1
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	110	470	99	52	9	75%	3.9	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	1.9%	3.45	3.78	+1.5
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	21	119	517	87	44	17	62%	3.5	16.4%	8.5%	7.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.69	+0.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	21	119	517	87	44	17	62%	3.5	16.8%	8.5%	8.3%	3.3%	4.46	4.60	+0.4
2023	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	110	500	93	75	13	100%	4.6	16.0%	13.5%	2.5%	2.8%	5.63	4.99	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	110	500	93	75	13	100%	4.6	16.0%	13.5%	2.5%	2.8%	5.63	4.99	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	110	500	93	75	13	100%	4.6	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	2.6%	5.63	4.99	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			135	99	587	2565	493	208	84	73%	4.3	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.34	+3.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	55	233	45	26	8	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.1%	8.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.10	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	48	204	37	24	8	100%	6.0	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	3.8%	5.28	5.50	-0.3
2029	38	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	42	175	30	22	7	100%	5.9	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	4.2%	5.67	5.93	-0.5
2027	36	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	55	232	45	26	8	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.1%	8.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.10	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	48	203	37	24	8	100%	6.0	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	3.8%	5.28	5.50	-0.3
2029	38	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	42	177	30	22	8	100%	6.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	4.2%	5.67	5.93	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	123	732	3177	605	279	107	77%	4.6	19.0%	8.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.97	4.45	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	868	165	76	29	77%	4.6	19.0%	8.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.97	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		272	226	1274	5525	1054	502	169	83%	4.7	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.32	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	35	200	867	165	79	26	83%	4.7	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.32	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Hutchison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	5.47	18.3%	6.7%	145	+0.74	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	69
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	64
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	63
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	62
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	62
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	61
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	60
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	60
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	59
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	59
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	59
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	57
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	57
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	56
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	54
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	54
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	52
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	52
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	477	50
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	72	19.1%	9.0%	1.29	4.95
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50