Buck Farmer

P Louisville Bats

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 243 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	32	MLBCIN	71	0	75	4.20	4.30	22.7%	9.4%	0.2
2024	33	MLBCIN	61	1	71	3.04	3.38	23.4%	7.7%	1.0
2025	34	MIX2 levels	48	0	52	4.47	3.42	21.6%	11.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	36	MLBCIN	167	0	175	4.21	4.46	21.2%	10.0%	0.2
2028PROJ	37	MLBCIN	146	0	153	4.60	4.86	20.1%	10.6%	-0.5
2029PROJ	38	MLBCIN	125	0	131	5.02	5.30	19.0%	11.3%	-1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%57

Whiff%55

xwOBA vs45

FB Velo25

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Zack Segovia (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.21

FIP4.46

K%21.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

FB+1.9 (44%)

SI (24%)

CU (35%)

CH-1.6 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	4	2	9	46	11	5	2	50%	2.3	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	4.3%	11.57	4.84	+0.0
2014	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	4	2	9	46	11	5	2	50%	2.3	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	4.3%	11.57	5.14	-0.0
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	127	554	100	40	16	70%	4.2	16.4%	7.4%	9.0%	3.2%	5.17	4.41	+0.7
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	127	554	100	40	16	70%	4.2	18.1%	7.2%	10.8%	2.9%	5.17	4.11	+1.2
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	21	129	557	120	47	15	62%	3.8	19.5%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.29	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	21	129	557	120	47	15	62%	3.8	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.11	3.84	+1.6
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	172	738	163	50	18	100%	5.4	20.2%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	4.72	3.68	+2.5
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	172	738	163	50	18	100%	5.4	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.4%	4.72	3.44	+3.1
2018	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	1	69	308	57	40	6	2%	1.1	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	2.0%	4.15	4.30	+0.2
2018	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	1	69	308	57	40	6	2%	1.1	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	1.9%	4.15	4.31	+0.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	73	1	68	288	73	22	8	1%	0.9	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	2.9%	3.72	3.52	+0.8
2019	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	73	1	68	288	73	22	8	1%	0.9	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	2.8%	3.72	3.45	+0.9
2020	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	23	0	21	89	14	5	3	0%	0.9	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	3.5%	3.80	4.42	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	23	0	21	89	14	5	3	0%	0.9	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	3.4%	3.80	4.32	+0.1
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	62	280	59	30	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.8%	5.25	4.85	-0.2
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	62	280	59	30	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	3.6%	5.25	4.75	-0.1
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	69	291	88	34	6	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.8%	17.0%	1.8%	3.76	3.16	+1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	69	291	88	34	6	0%	1.1	30.2%	11.7%	18.6%	2.1%	3.76	3.16	+1.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	75	309	70	29	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.19	+0.3
2023	32	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	75	309	70	29	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.6%	4.20	4.30	+0.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.2%	3.04	3.29	+1.1
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.2%	3.04	3.29	+1.1
2024	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.3%	3.04	3.38	+1.0
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	1.8%	4.47	4.03	—
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	1.8%	4.47	4.03	—
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.3%	4.47	3.42	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			417	22	514	2245	486	223	71	5%	1.2	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.31	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	CIN	167	0	175	739	157	74	20	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	CIN	145	0	153	645	130	69	20	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.86	-0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	CIN	125	0	131	554	105	63	20	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.3%	7.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.30	-1.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	CIN	146	0	153	646	130	69	20	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.86	-0.5
2029	38	MLB CTX	CIN	125	0	131	553	105	63	20	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.3%	7.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.30	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		687	22	798	3444	721	354	111	3%	1.2	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	6	200	864	181	89	28	3%	1.2	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		566	79	925	3991	828	358	111	14%	1.6	20.7%	9.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.41	4.01	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	863	179	77	24	14%	1.6	20.7%	9.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.41	4.01	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Buck Farmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.2%	10.0%	2.8%	—	5.06	19.6%	8.7%	284	+0.60	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	55
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	52
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	49
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	49
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	49
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	48
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	45
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	43
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	43
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	42
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	42
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	41
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	40
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	39
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	39
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	37
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	36
Masato Yoshii R 2001 · 4.64 FIP	36	SW	4.64	12.8%	4.9%	3.6%	.281	4.15	13.4%	8.0%	131	-0.49	4.15	757	35
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	34
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	75	21.0%	10.5%	1.22	4.65
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*