Aroldis Chapman — OGILVIE

Aroldis Chapman P Boston Red Sox

Age 38 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6169vR 77

ERA2.76

FIP2.58

K%34.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%24.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4040

CMD7575

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8597.0

Whiff%

p7629.4%

p9031.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.256

FB+0.8 (70%)

SL+0.8 (18%)

SI (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	65	0	66	278	116	32	3	0%	1.0	41.7%	11.5%	30.2%	1.0%	1.63	1.58	+2.4
2015	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	65	0	66	278	116	32	3	0%	1.0	41.7%	11.5%	30.2%	1.1%	1.63	1.64	+2.3
2016	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	59	0	58	222	90	18	2	0%	1.0	40.5%	8.1%	32.4%	0.9%	1.55	1.22	+2.3
2016	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	59	0	58	222	90	18	2	0%	1.0	40.5%	8.1%	32.4%	0.9%	1.55	1.38	+2.2
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	51	214	71	20	3	2%	1.0	32.9%	8.6%	24.3%	1.3%	3.35	2.15	+1.5
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	51	214	71	20	3	2%	1.0	33.2%	9.3%	23.8%	1.4%	3.35	2.26	+1.4
2018	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	55	0	51	212	93	30	2	0%	0.9	43.9%	14.2%	29.7%	0.9%	2.45	1.67	+1.8
2018	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	55	0	51	212	93	30	2	0%	0.9	43.9%	14.2%	29.7%	0.9%	2.45	1.74	+1.7
2019	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	60	0	57	235	85	25	3	0%	0.9	36.2%	10.6%	25.5%	1.2%	2.21	2.05	+1.7
2019	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	60	0	57	235	85	25	3	0%	0.9	36.2%	10.6%	25.5%	1.3%	2.21	2.12	+1.7
2020	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	13	0	12	45	22	4	2	0%	0.9	48.9%	8.9%	40.0%	4.4%	3.09	2.54	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	13	0	12	45	22	4	2	0%	0.9	48.9%	8.9%	40.0%	4.4%	3.09	2.59	+0.3
2021	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	61	0	56	243	97	36	9	0%	0.9	39.9%	14.8%	25.1%	3.5%	3.36	3.51	+0.7
2021	33	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	61	0	56	243	97	36	9	0%	0.9	39.9%	14.8%	25.1%	3.7%	3.36	3.65	+0.6
2022	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	41	178	52	30	4	0%	0.9	26.9%	17.5%	9.4%	2.3%	3.92	4.33	+0.1
2022	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	41	178	52	30	4	0%	0.9	29.2%	16.9%	12.4%	2.2%	3.92	4.02	+0.3
2023	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	61	0	58	249	103	34	4	0%	1.0	41.4%	13.7%	27.7%	1.5%	3.09	2.16	+1.7
2023	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	61	0	58	249	103	34	4	0%	1.0	41.4%	13.7%	27.7%	1.5%	3.09	2.16	+1.7
2023	35	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	61	0	58	249	103	34	4	0%	1.0	41.4%	13.7%	27.7%	1.6%	3.09	2.21	+1.6
2024	36	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	68	0	62	265	98	39	5	0%	0.9	37.0%	14.7%	22.3%	2.0%	3.79	2.96	+1.2
2024	36	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	68	0	62	265	98	39	5	0%	0.9	37.0%	14.7%	22.3%	2.0%	3.79	2.96	+1.2
2024	36	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	68	0	62	265	98	39	5	0%	0.9	37.0%	14.7%	22.3%	1.9%	3.79	2.87	+1.2
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	67	0	61	228	85	15	3	0%	0.9	37.3%	6.6%	30.7%	1.3%	1.17	1.53	+2.2
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	67	0	61	228	85	15	3	0%	0.9	37.3%	6.6%	30.7%	1.3%	1.17	1.53	+2.2
2025	37	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	67	0	61	228	85	15	3	0%	0.9	37.3%	6.6%	30.7%	1.3%	1.17	1.70	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			655	0	618	2552	966	300	43	0%	0.9	37.9%	11.8%	26.1%	1.7%	2.56	2.34	+16.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	51	0	50	205	65	21	3	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.5%	1.99	2.54	+1.2
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	51	0	50	205	65	21	3	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.5%	1.99	2.54	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	38	MLB RAW	BOS	51	0	50	205	65	21	3	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.5%	1.99	2.52	+1.2
SO FAR	38	MLB RAW	BOS	51	0	50	205	65	21	3	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.5%	1.99	2.52	+1.2
ROS	38	MLB MLE	BOS	4	0	4	18	6	2	0	0%	1.1	34.9%	10.0%	24.9%	2.1%	2.76	2.58	+0.1
ROS	38	MLB CTX	BOS	4	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.0	34.9%	10.0%	24.9%	2.1%	2.76	2.58	+0.1
2026 TOT	38	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	54	223	71	23	3	—	—	32.0%	10.2%	21.7%	1.5%	2.05	2.55	+1.4
FULL	38	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	54	228	71	23	3	—	—	31.3%	10.0%	21.3%	1.5%	2.05	2.54	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	BOS	41	0	43	183	63	20	4	0%	1.1	34.4%	10.7%	23.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.25	+0.7
2027	39	MLB CTX	BOS	41	0	43	182	63	19	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	10.7%	23.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.25	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		700	0	666	2753	1035	321	48	0%	1.0	37.6%	11.7%	25.9%	1.7%	2.60	2.36	+17.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	0	200	827	311	96	14	0%	1.0	37.6%	11.7%	25.9%	1.7%	2.60	2.36	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		661	1	624	2574	972	303	42	0%	0.9	37.8%	11.8%	26.0%	1.6%	2.55	2.31	+17.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		212	0	200	825	312	97	14	0%	0.9	37.8%	11.8%	26.0%	1.6%	2.55	2.31	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aroldis Chapman (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.69	38.2%	9.8%	2.2%	—	3.25	34.4%	23.8%	43	+0.56	—	—	—
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	56
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	54
Oliver Pérez L 2020 · 1.99 FIP	38	SU	1.99	19.4%	4.2%	0.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	1.58	219	34
Jason Grilli R 2015 · 2.05 FIP	38	SU	2.05	32.1%	6.4%	1.5%	.310	4.72	29.8%	18.4%	99	+2.67	2.05	133	33
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	30
Manny Parra L 2019 · 2.43 FIP	36	SU	2.43	17.3%	6.3%	0.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	114	29
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	29
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	22
Koji Uehara R 2015 · 2.31 FIP	40	SU	2.31	29.4%	5.0%	1.9%	.245	3.47	31.3%	26.0%	90	+1.16	2.31	130	19
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	13
Jose Valverde R 2015 · 2.47 FIP	37	SU	2.47	17.8%	3.0%	0.9%	.253	2.21	25.4%	19.1%	58	-0.26	2.21	122	12
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	1
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	0
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	0
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	0
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	47	36.5%	10.2%	0.89	3.00
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87