Aroldis Chapman
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 38
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5867vR 77
ERA2.61
FIP2.42
K%35.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%25.2%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p9029.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.263
FB+0.8 (73%)
SL+0.8 (18%)
SI (36%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 65 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 116 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.7% | 11.5% | 30.2% | 1.0% | 1.63 | 1.60 | +2.4 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 65 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 116 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.7% | 11.5% | 30.2% | 1.1% | 1.63 | 1.64 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 59 | 0 | 58 | 222 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.5% | 8.1% | 32.4% | 0.9% | 1.55 | 1.19 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 59 | 0 | 58 | 222 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.5% | 8.1% | 32.4% | 0.9% | 1.55 | 1.38 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 51 | 214 | 71 | 20 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 32.9% | 8.6% | 24.3% | 1.3% | 3.35 | 2.14 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 51 | 214 | 71 | 20 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 33.2% | 9.3% | 23.8% | 1.4% | 3.35 | 2.26 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 55 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 93 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 43.9% | 14.2% | 29.7% | 0.9% | 2.45 | 1.67 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 55 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 93 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 43.9% | 14.2% | 29.7% | 0.9% | 2.45 | 1.74 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 60 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.2% | 10.6% | 25.5% | 1.2% | 2.21 | 2.04 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 60 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.2% | 10.6% | 25.5% | 1.3% | 2.21 | 2.12 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 13 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 48.9% | 8.9% | 40.0% | 4.4% | 3.09 | 2.54 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 13 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 48.9% | 8.9% | 40.0% | 4.4% | 3.09 | 2.59 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 61 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 97 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.9% | 14.8% | 25.1% | 3.4% | 3.36 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 61 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 97 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.9% | 14.8% | 25.1% | 3.7% | 3.36 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 52 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.9% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 52 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 16.9% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 61 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.4% | 13.7% | 27.7% | 1.6% | 3.09 | 2.20 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 61 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.4% | 13.7% | 27.7% | 1.6% | 3.09 | 2.21 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 98 | 39 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.0% | 14.7% | 22.3% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 2.89 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 98 | 39 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.0% | 14.7% | 22.3% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 2.87 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 61 | 228 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.3% | 6.6% | 30.7% | 1.3% | 1.17 | 1.50 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 61 | 228 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.3% | 6.6% | 30.7% | 1.3% | 1.17 | 1.70 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 9.9% | 19.8% | 0.8% | 2.20 | 2.30 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.0% | 9.8% | 25.2% | 1.9% | 2.61 | 2.42 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.0% | 9.8% | 25.2% | 1.9% | 2.61 | 2.42 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 38 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 50 | 213 | 68 | 21 | 3 | — | — | 32.0% | 9.9% | 22.1% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 2.35 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 38 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 50 | 213 | 68 | 21 | 3 | — | — | 32.0% | 9.9% | 22.1% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 2.35 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 63 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.6% | 10.5% | 24.1% | 2.3% | 3.08 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 63 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.6% | 10.5% | 24.1% | 2.3% | 3.08 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 696 | 0 | 662 | 2743 | 1032 | 319 | 47 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.6% | 11.6% | 26.0% | 1.7% | 2.62 | 2.34 | +23.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 210 | 0 | 200 | 828 | 312 | 96 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.6% | 11.6% | 26.0% | 1.7% | 2.62 | 2.34 | +7.2 | ||
| Career | — | 640 | 1 | 603 | 2490 | 943 | 294 | 40 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.9% | 11.8% | 26.1% | 1.6% | 2.58 | 2.28 | +22.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 826 | 313 | 98 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.9% | 11.8% | 26.1% | 1.6% | 2.58 | 2.28 | +7.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aroldis Chapman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.67 | 38.2% | 9.8% | 2.1% | — | 3.17 | 34.6% | 24.1% | 43 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 55 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 52 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.81 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 1.4% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 238 | 41 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 1.98 FIP | 38 | SU | 1.98 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .310 | 4.74 | 29.8% | 18.4% | 99 | +2.76 | 1.98 | 133 | 33 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 1.99 FIP | 38 | SU | 1.99 | 19.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.56 | 219 | 32 |
| Manny Parra L 2024 · 2.43 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.43 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 114 | 29 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 28 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 27 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 22 |
| Koji Uehara R 2028 · 2.27 FIP | 40 | SU | 2.27 | 29.4% | 5.0% | 1.9% | .245 | 3.36 | 31.3% | 26.0% | 90 | +1.09 | 2.27 | 130 | 19 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 12 |
| Jose Valverde R 2025 · 2.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 2.41 | 17.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | .253 | 2.19 | 25.4% | 19.1% | 58 | -0.22 | 2.19 | 122 | 12 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 0 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 0 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.99 | 10.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% | .320 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.95 | 2.99 | 119 | 0 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 0 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 47 | 36.6% | 10.1% | 0.86 | 2.96 |
| Dellin Betances ('18) | 4 | 71 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 0.67 | 2.48 |
| Andrew Miller ('21) | 6 | 54 | 35.9% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 2.73 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Ken Giles ('19) | 5 | 60 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 0.75 | 2.89 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |