Aroldis Chapman
P
Boston Red Sox
+1.3
WAR
Age 38
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA2.86
FIP2.92
xFIP4.06
SIERA3.55
K%34.7%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%24.9%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†8080
FB Velo
p9098.4
Whiff%
p9035.8%
K%
p9037.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.227
FB+0.8 (73%)
SL+0.8 (17%)
SI (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 65 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 116 | 32 | 3 | 41.7% | 11.5% | 1.0% | 1.63 | 1.60 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 59 | 0 | 58 | 222 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 40.5% | 8.1% | 1.0% | 1.55 | 1.25 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 53 | 1 | 51 | 214 | 71 | 20 | 3 | 32.9% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 3.35 | 2.15 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 55 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 93 | 30 | 2 | 43.9% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 2.45 | 1.67 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 60 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 36.2% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 2.21 | 2.07 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 13 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 22 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 61 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 97 | 36 | 9 | 39.9% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 3.36 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 48 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 52 | 30 | 4 | 26.9% | 17.5% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 61 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 41.4% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.09 | 2.04 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 98 | 39 | 5 | 37.0% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 2.88 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 61 | 228 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 37.3% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 1.17 | 1.49 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 37.4% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 2.69 | 2.73 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 38 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 50 | 209 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 36.3% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 2.55 | 2.40 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 70 | 20 | 4 | 35.5% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 2.86 | 2.95 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 63 | 19 | 4 | 34.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.03 | 3.14 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 56 | 18 | 4 | 33.8% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.32 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 42 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 50 | 17 | 4 | 33.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 3.39 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 43 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 32.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 616 | 1 | 580 | 2391 | 913 | 284 | 39 | 38.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 2.28 | +19.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 315 | 98 | 13 | 38.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 2.28 | +6.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aroldis Chapman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.73 | 37.4% | 9.8% | 2.1% | — | 3.13 | 34.7% | 24.4% | 128 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 52 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 156 | 48 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 2.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.03 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 1.5% | .310 | 4.81 | 29.8% | 18.4% | 99 | +2.78 | 2.03 | 133 | 32 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 1.99 FIP | 38 | SU | 1.99 | 19.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.56 | 219 | 29 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 27 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 27 |
| Manny Parra L 2024 · 2.43 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.43 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 114 | 25 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 22 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 19 |
| Koji Uehara R 2028 · 2.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 2.35 | 29.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | .245 | 3.35 | 31.3% | 26.0% | 90 | +1.00 | 2.35 | 130 | 17 |
| Jose Valverde R 2025 · 2.49 FIP | 37 | SU | 2.49 | 17.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | .253 | 2.20 | 25.4% | 19.1% | 58 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 122 | 10 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 10 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.70 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.93 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.23 | 3.59 | 444 | 6 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 1 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.56 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .260 | 3.87 | 23.9% | 15.6% | 256 | +0.31 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 0 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 0 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 0 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.75 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.30 | 22.9% | 14.6% | 107 | +1.55 | 3.67 | 756 | 0 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.01 | 10.9% | 4.5% | 0.5% | .320 | 3.97 | 15.9% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.01 | 119 | 0 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +1.3 | $10M | -$3M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +1.1 | $9M | -$4M |
| Totals | $26M | $19M | -$7M | ||