Sean Nolin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sean Nolin P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 36 LHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.81

FIP4.97

K%17.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

CT+0.8

FB-2.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2013	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	1	1	1	11	0	1	1	100%	1.3	0.0%	9.1%	-9.1%	9.1%	40.50	9.24	-0.1
2013	23	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	1	1	1	11	0	1	1	100%	1.3	0.0%	9.1%	-9.1%	9.1%	40.50	15.10	-0.2
2014	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	1	4	0	0	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	9.00	16.82	-0.1
2014	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	1	4	0	0	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	9.00	16.10	-0.1
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	76	335	53	31	9	90%	3.8	14.5%	9.5%	4.9%	3.3%	3.66	4.88	+0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	76	335	53	31	9	90%	3.8	15.8%	9.3%	6.6%	2.7%	3.66	4.46	+0.4
2018	28	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	29	3	40	176	45	15	4	10%	1.4	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.3%	4.24	3.79	—
2018	28	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	29	3	40	176	45	15	4	10%	1.4	25.6%	8.5%	17.0%	2.3%	4.24	3.27	—
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	96	417	90	32	18	95%	5.1	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	4.7%	5.34	5.14	—
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	96	417	90	32	18	95%	5.1	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	4.3%	5.34	4.66	—
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	14	75	326	74	28	11	64%	3.4	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.7%	3.96	4.54	+0.3
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	14	75	326	74	28	11	64%	3.4	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.96	4.15	+0.7
2023	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	6.5%	5.45	5.87	-0.4
2023	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	6.5%	5.45	5.87	-0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	19.2%	7.3%	11.9%	6.0%	5.45	5.89	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	12	61	290	37	28	12	63%	3.2	12.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.1%	6.34	5.82	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	44	187	33	21	6	100%	6.3	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	3.4%	5.08	5.30	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	3.4%	5.08	5.30	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	12	61	292	37	28	12	63%	3.2	12.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.1%	6.34	5.51	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		62	39	200	950	120	91	39	63%	3.2	12.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.1%	6.34	5.51	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		101	61	323	1420	258	122	59	60%	3.2	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	4.1%	4.65	4.91	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	38	200	879	160	76	36	60%	3.2	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	4.1%	4.65	4.91	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Nolin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	17.9%	10.6%	3.0%	—	5.30	17.4%	6.3%	44	+0.33	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	62
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	54
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	188	52
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	43
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	43
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	42
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	40
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	34
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	29
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	27
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	25
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	21
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	21
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	20
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	20
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	18
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	18
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	15
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	15

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	39	15.6%	10.3%	1.39	5.49
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Dave Borkowski ('08)	1.7	58	16.9%	9.5%	1.25	5.87