Mike Montgomery prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Mike Montgomery P Oklahoma City Dodgers

Age 37 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA4.49

FIP4.53

K%20.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p1617.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

CT+0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	155	665	122	55	14	100%	5.8	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.1%	4.40	3.88	+1.9
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	155	665	122	55	14	100%	5.8	18.3%	8.3%	10.1%	2.1%	4.40	3.76	+2.1
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	49	7	100	414	92	36	8	14%	2.0	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.0%	2.52	3.43	+1.3
2016	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	49	7	100	414	92	36	8	14%	2.0	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	1.9%	2.52	3.38	+1.4
2017	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	44	14	131	540	100	51	10	32%	3.0	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	1.9%	3.38	3.79	+1.2
2017	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	44	14	131	540	100	51	10	32%	3.0	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	1.9%	3.38	3.74	+1.3
2018	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	38	19	124	534	86	35	10	50%	3.3	16.1%	6.6%	9.6%	1.9%	3.99	3.64	+1.9
2018	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	38	19	124	534	86	35	10	50%	3.3	16.1%	6.6%	9.6%	1.9%	3.99	3.61	+1.9
2019	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	17	107	463	84	38	19	46%	2.9	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	4.8%	4.71	5.35	-1.0
2019	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	17	107	463	84	38	19	46%	2.9	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	4.1%	4.71	4.90	-0.4
2020	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	3	1	5	23	4	1	1	33%	1.8	17.4%	4.3%	13.0%	4.3%	5.06	4.57	-0.0
2020	31	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	3	1	5	23	4	1	1	33%	1.8	17.4%	4.3%	13.0%	4.3%	5.06	4.60	-0.0
2021	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	4	4	17	76	16	9	2	100%	4.2	18.5%	12.4%	6.1%	2.5%	7.56	4.49	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	4	4	17	76	16	9	2	100%	4.2	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	7.56	4.36	—
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	73	339	59	35	9	79%	3.1	14.9%	10.9%	4.0%	3.0%	6.63	4.87	—
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	73	339	59	35	9	79%	3.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.7%	6.63	4.52	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	18	16	77	365	68	53	4	89%	4.3	16.0%	13.1%	3.0%	1.2%	5.26	4.06	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	18	16	77	365	68	53	4	89%	4.3	16.0%	13.1%	3.0%	1.2%	5.26	4.06	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	18	16	77	365	68	53	4	89%	4.3	18.6%	14.5%	4.1%	1.1%	5.26	4.07	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			183	70	541	2308	415	192	58	38%	3.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.5%	3.84	4.02	+3.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	51	214	42	23	7	100%	6.3	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.96	-0.0
2028	39	MLB MLE	LAD	7	7	44	184	34	21	7	100%	6.2	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.7%	5.15	5.40	-0.2
2027	38	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	42	23	7	100%	6.4	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.96	-0.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	44	186	34	21	7	100%	6.3	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.7%	5.15	5.40	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	85	635	2705	491	236	72	43%	3.2	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.01	4.13	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		62	27	200	852	155	74	23	43%	3.2	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.01	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		244	124	789	3419	600	311	83	51%	3.2	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	2.4%	4.33	4.11	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	31	200	866	152	79	21	51%	3.2	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	2.4%	4.33	4.11	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.8%	10.1%	2.8%	—	5.16	19.1%	8.0%	94	+0.63	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	62
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	50
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	50
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	48
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	43
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	37
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	35
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	35
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	30
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	26
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	24
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	22
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	20
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	20
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	19
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	19
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	19
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	19
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	18

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	87	18.4%	9.3%	1.03	4.05
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Scott Sullivan ('04)	3.7	92	19.8%	8.9%	1.09	3.98
Chad Gaudin ('13)	4.2	93	18.2%	10.3%	0.99	4.44
Tom Gorzelanny ('16)	4.4	88	18.4%	10.0%	1.00	4.40
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Alexi Ogando ('18)	2.5	72	19.3%	8.8%	0.95	3.50