Ryan Carpenter

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 36 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2018	27	MIX4 levels	22	21	105	5.33	4.21	19.6%	5.7%	0.9	K 17.6% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.57
2019	28	MIX2 levels	23	23	118	6.65	4.92	19.0%	7.3%	-0.0	K 17.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.30
2024	33	AAASD	14	14	59	8.85	7.37	15.7%	11.0%	—	K 13.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 7.01
2027PROJ	36	MLBSD	28	28	165	4.79	4.89	19.4%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ1% MLB	37	MLBSD	1	1	1	5.02	5.22	18.5%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	38	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.33	5.58	17.6%	9.9%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsArturo Lopez (age 36) · Juan Antonio Pena (age 37) · Jason Lane (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA4.79

FIP4.89

K%19.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF3550

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1012.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	28	28	167	701	132	37	19	100%	6.0	15.3%	5.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.04	4.12	—
2015	24	AA RAW	New Britain Rock Cats	28	28	167	701	132	37	19	100%	6.0	18.8%	5.3%	13.6%	2.7%	4.04	3.66	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	26	8	69	326	68	24	16	31%	2.6	18.4%	7.7%	10.6%	4.5%	7.47	4.99	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	26	8	69	326	68	24	16	31%	2.6	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	4.9%	7.47	5.20	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	25	156	659	161	39	19	93%	5.8	21.5%	6.2%	15.3%	2.6%	4.15	3.52	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	25	156	659	161	39	19	93%	5.8	24.4%	5.9%	18.5%	2.9%	4.15	3.37	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	21	105	475	93	27	17	95%	4.8	17.6%	5.8%	11.8%	4.0%	5.33	4.57	+0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	21	105	475	93	27	17	95%	4.8	19.6%	5.7%	13.9%	3.6%	5.33	4.21	+0.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	118	531	101	39	23	100%	5.1	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	4.9%	6.65	5.30	-0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	118	531	101	39	23	100%	5.1	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.3%	6.65	4.92	-0.0
2024	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	14	59	281	44	31	19	100%	4.2	13.5%	9.9%	3.5%	6.9%	8.85	7.01	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	14	59	281	44	31	19	100%	4.2	13.5%	9.9%	3.5%	6.9%	8.85	7.01	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	14	59	281	44	31	19	100%	4.2	15.7%	11.0%	4.6%	6.8%	8.85	7.37	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	14	63	304	40	17	20	93%	4.2	13.2%	5.6%	7.6%	6.6%	8.57	6.77	-1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	SD	28	28	165	697	135	61	24	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	SD	24	24	144	608	113	57	24	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.9%	5.02	5.22	-0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	124	523	92	52	22	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	4.3%	5.33	5.58	-0.9
2028	37	MLB CTX	SD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.9%	5.02	5.22	-0.0
2029	38	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	4.3%	5.33	5.58	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	14	64	310	41	18	20	93%	4.3	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	6.5%	8.49	6.28	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	44	200	962	127	56	62	93%	4.2	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	6.5%	8.49	6.28	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		140	119	673	2973	522	203	117	85%	4.8	17.6%	6.8%	10.7%	3.9%	5.50	4.64	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	884	155	60	35	85%	4.8	17.6%	6.8%	10.7%	3.9%	5.50	4.64	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Carpenter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	19.4%	8.8%	3.5%	—	5.39	18.1%	8.5%	268	+0.50	—	—	—
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	65
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	63
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	60
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	55
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	188	51
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	46
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	39
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	38
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	37
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	35
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	35
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	34
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	33
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	32
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	32
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	32
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	31
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	30
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	30
J.D. Martin R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	36	SP	5.89	13.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	414	30

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	99	17.8%	8.8%	1.64	5.47
Dave Williams ('07)	2.0	82	13.8%	9.3%	1.41	4.83
Osvaldo Fernandez ('01)	1.9	97	12.2%	8.0%	1.00	4.91
Rolando Arrojo ('02)	3.5	140	16.8%	8.4%	1.07	4.55
Connie Marrero ('50-'54, 10 WAR*)	3.7	147	18.4%*	6.7%*	1.18*	3.94*
Mike Campbell ('87-'96, -2 WAR*)	1.2	58	17.0%*	9.1%*	1.96*	5.82*
Frank Oberlin ('06-'10, -4 WAR*)	1.1	57	15.1%*	11.2%*	1.27*	6.38*