Marcus Walden prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Marcus Walden P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 37 RHP 5'10" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 121 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.55

FIP4.43

K%22.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP122

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1018.4%

p1014.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.479

SL-2.0

CT-3.3

FB-6.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	1	1	3	16	2	3	0	100%	3.0	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	0.0%	12.00	4.42	—
2015	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	1	1	3	16	2	3	0	100%	3.0	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	0.0%	12.00	4.77	—
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	56	229	40	16	1	0%	1.3	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	0.6%	2.40	3.05	—
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	56	229	40	16	1	0%	1.3	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	0.4%	2.40	2.76	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	29	15	106	444	86	35	4	52%	3.6	17.0%	8.3%	8.8%	0.9%	3.92	3.20	—
2017	28	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	29	15	106	444	86	35	4	52%	3.6	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	0.9%	3.92	2.96	—
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	5	47	219	38	19	2	19%	1.8	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	0.7%	4.56	3.30	+0.7
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	5	47	219	38	19	2	19%	1.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	0.9%	4.56	3.25	+0.7
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	0	80	333	78	31	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.5%	13.8%	1.9%	3.73	3.37	+1.1
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	0	80	333	78	31	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	1.8%	3.73	3.29	+1.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	15	0	13	71	10	9	5	0%	0.9	14.1%	12.7%	1.4%	7.2%	9.45	7.48	-0.5
2020	31	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	15	0	13	71	10	9	5	0%	0.9	14.1%	12.7%	1.4%	7.0%	9.45	8.50	-0.6
2021	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	38	3	57	264	58	22	9	8%	1.5	19.3%	8.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.87	4.48	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	38	3	57	264	58	22	9	8%	1.5	22.0%	8.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.87	4.27	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	16	9	60	260	52	19	5	56%	3.7	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	2.2%	4.53	3.81	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	16	9	60	260	52	19	5	56%	3.7	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	1.9%	4.53	3.40	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	17	14	72	325	50	35	11	82%	4.2	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	3.2%	5.65	4.98	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	17	14	72	325	50	35	11	82%	4.2	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	3.2%	5.65	4.98	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	17	14	72	325	50	35	11	82%	4.2	15.4%	10.8%	4.6%	3.4%	5.65	5.17	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	106	457	100	43	11	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.4%	4.50	3.78	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	2.9%	4.55	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	SEA	103	0	108	456	97	48	15	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.87	-0.4
2028	39	MLB MLE	SEA	89	0	93	393	79	44	15	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.8%	5.07	5.30	-0.8
2027	38	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.87	—
2028	39	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.8%	5.07	5.30	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	0	106	457	100	43	11	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.4%	4.50	3.77	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	0	200	862	189	81	21	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.4%	4.50	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		255	47	494	2161	375	191	44	18%	1.9	17.3%	8.8%	8.5%	2.0%	4.41	3.87	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	19	200	875	152	77	18	18%	1.9	17.3%	8.8%	8.5%	2.0%	4.41	3.87	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcus Walden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.4%	9.8%	2.9%	—	5.07	20.7%	9.9%	201	+0.64	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	69
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	64
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	60
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	58
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	57
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	56
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	54
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	52
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	52
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	51
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	50
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	47
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	44
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	40
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	39
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	38
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	32
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	28
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	108	21.5%	10.2%	1.20	4.70
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92