Craig Kimbrel — OGILVIE

Craig Kimbrel P Kansas City Royals

Age 38 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.98

FIP4.03

K%25.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

FB+1.1 (73%)

SI (8%)

CU (10%)

CH (3%)

SL (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	59	239	87	21	6	0%	1.0	36.4%	8.8%	27.6%	2.4%	2.58	2.48	+1.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	61	0	59	239	87	21	6	0%	1.0	36.4%	8.8%	27.6%	2.5%	2.58	2.54	+1.4
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	53	223	83	30	4	2%	0.9	37.7%	13.6%	24.1%	1.9%	3.38	2.66	+1.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	1	53	223	83	30	4	2%	0.9	37.2%	13.5%	23.8%	1.8%	3.38	2.65	+1.2
2017	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	67	0	69	254	126	14	6	0%	1.0	49.6%	5.5%	44.1%	2.4%	1.43	0.94	+3.0
2017	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	67	0	69	254	126	14	6	0%	1.0	49.6%	5.5%	44.1%	2.4%	1.43	1.19	+2.8
2018	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	63	0	62	247	96	31	7	0%	1.0	38.9%	12.6%	26.3%	2.9%	2.74	3.00	+1.2
2018	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	63	0	62	247	96	31	7	0%	1.0	38.9%	12.6%	26.3%	2.8%	2.74	2.97	+1.2
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	24	110	34	13	10	4%	0.9	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	9.7%	5.92	7.39	-0.8
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	24	110	34	13	10	4%	0.9	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	9.1%	5.92	7.25	-0.8
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	18	0	15	69	28	11	2	0%	0.9	40.6%	15.9%	24.6%	3.0%	5.28	3.35	+0.2
2020	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	18	0	15	69	28	11	2	0%	0.9	40.6%	15.9%	24.6%	2.9%	5.28	3.30	+0.2
2021	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	63	0	60	235	100	22	6	0%	0.9	42.6%	9.4%	33.2%	2.5%	2.26	2.07	+1.8
2021	33	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	63	0	60	235	100	22	6	0%	0.9	42.6%	9.4%	33.2%	2.6%	2.26	2.16	+1.7
2022	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	60	260	72	26	4	0%	1.0	27.7%	10.0%	17.7%	1.5%	3.75	2.84	+1.2
2022	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	60	260	72	26	4	0%	1.0	27.7%	10.0%	17.7%	1.5%	3.75	2.87	+1.2
2023	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	71	0	69	278	94	27	10	0%	1.0	33.8%	9.7%	24.1%	3.4%	3.26	3.32	+1.0
2023	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	71	0	69	278	94	27	10	0%	1.0	33.8%	9.7%	24.1%	3.4%	3.26	3.32	+1.0
2023	35	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	71	0	69	278	94	27	10	0%	1.0	33.8%	9.7%	24.1%	3.6%	3.26	3.43	+0.9
2024	36	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	57	0	52	232	73	30	7	0%	0.9	31.5%	12.9%	18.5%	3.0%	5.33	3.75	+0.5
2024	36	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	57	0	52	232	73	30	7	0%	0.9	31.5%	12.9%	18.5%	3.0%	5.33	3.75	+0.5
2024	36	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	57	0	52	232	73	30	7	0%	0.9	31.5%	12.9%	18.5%	3.0%	5.33	3.77	+0.5
2025	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	51	211	68	28	6	0%	0.9	24.7%	11.9%	12.8%	3.2%	2.82	4.27	+0.2
2025	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	51	211	68	28	6	0%	0.9	24.7%	11.9%	12.8%	3.2%	2.82	4.27	+0.2
2025	37	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	0	51	211	68	28	6	0%	0.9	32.2%	13.3%	19.0%	2.8%	2.82	3.61	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			601	0	577	2368	846	249	67	0%	1.0	35.7%	10.5%	25.2%	2.8%	3.30	2.97	+10.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	46	192	41	18	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.6%	2.3%	4.34	3.78	+0.4
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	46	192	41	18	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.6%	2.3%	4.34	3.78	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	38	A RAW	KC	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	38	MLB RAW	KC	44	0	45	189	40	18	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.6%	2.1%	4.43	3.68	+0.5
SO FAR	38	MLB RAW	KC	44	0	45	189	40	18	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.6%	2.1%	4.43	3.68	+0.5
ROS	38	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	20	5	2	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	3.1%	3.98	4.03	+0.0
ROS	38	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	3.1%	3.98	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	38	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	51	212	46	20	5	—	—	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	2.2%	4.30	3.80	+0.5
FULL	38	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	50	209	46	20	5	—	—	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	2.2%	4.39	3.68	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	KC	47	0	49	209	52	24	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.66	-0.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	179	43	22	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.85	5.10	-0.3
2027	39	MLB CTX	KC	47	0	49	207	51	24	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.66	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	KC	40	0	42	177	42	22	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.85	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		693	0	674	2776	946	297	81	0%	1.0	34.1%	10.7%	23.3%	2.9%	3.49	3.19	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	824	281	88	24	0%	1.0	34.1%	10.7%	23.3%	2.9%	3.49	3.19	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		649	2	621	2550	887	270	73	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.6%	24.2%	2.9%	3.27	3.08	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		209	1	200	821	286	87	24	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.6%	24.2%	2.9%	3.27	3.08	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Craig Kimbrel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	29.1%	11.6%	3.1%	—	4.86	24.3%	12.4%	92	+0.64	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	74
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	73
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	72
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	71
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	67
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	63
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	62
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	61
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	60
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	60
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	59
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	59
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	57
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	55
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	53
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	51
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	50
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	47
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	45
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	26.2%	11.8%	1.30	4.46
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64