Craig Kimbrel
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 38
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.04
FIP4.11
K%26.2%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p380.326
FB+1.1 (73%)
SI (3%)
CU (9%)
CH (2%)
SL (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 59 | 239 | 87 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 2.7% | 2.58 | 2.62 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 59 | 239 | 87 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 2.5% | 2.58 | 2.54 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 53 | 223 | 83 | 30 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.7% | 13.6% | 24.1% | 1.8% | 3.38 | 2.63 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 53 | 223 | 83 | 30 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.2% | 13.5% | 23.8% | 1.8% | 3.38 | 2.65 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 69 | 254 | 126 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 49.6% | 5.5% | 44.1% | 2.3% | 1.43 | 0.89 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 69 | 254 | 126 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 49.6% | 5.5% | 44.1% | 2.4% | 1.43 | 1.19 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 63 | 0 | 62 | 247 | 96 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.9% | 12.6% | 26.3% | 2.8% | 2.74 | 2.95 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 63 | 0 | 62 | 247 | 96 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.9% | 12.6% | 26.3% | 2.8% | 2.74 | 2.97 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 24 | 110 | 34 | 13 | 10 | 4% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 9.1% | 5.92 | 7.06 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 24 | 110 | 34 | 13 | 10 | 4% | 0.9 | 30.9% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 9.1% | 5.92 | 7.25 | -0.8 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 18 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 40.6% | 15.9% | 24.6% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 3.24 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 18 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 40.6% | 15.9% | 24.6% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 3.30 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 60 | 235 | 100 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 42.6% | 9.4% | 33.2% | 2.5% | 2.26 | 2.05 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 60 | 235 | 100 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 42.6% | 9.4% | 33.2% | 2.6% | 2.26 | 2.16 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 72 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 10.0% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 3.75 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 72 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 10.0% | 17.7% | 1.5% | 3.75 | 2.87 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 71 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 94 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 9.7% | 24.1% | 3.5% | 3.26 | 3.38 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 71 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 94 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 9.7% | 24.1% | 3.6% | 3.26 | 3.43 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 57 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.5% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 57 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.5% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 51 | 211 | 68 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 2.82 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 51 | 211 | 68 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.2% | 13.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 2.82 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 42 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 38 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 58 | 246 | 58 | 22 | 9 | — | — | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 38 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 58 | 243 | 58 | 22 | 9 | — | — | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | NYM | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 5.04 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | NYM | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 5.45 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | NYM | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 5.04 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | NYM | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 5.45 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 734 | 0 | 719 | 2964 | 997 | 319 | 95 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 10.8% | 22.9% | 3.2% | 3.67 | 3.38 | +17.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 825 | 277 | 89 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 10.8% | 22.9% | 3.2% | 3.67 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 646 | 2 | 620 | 2543 | 892 | 271 | 76 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 10.6% | 24.4% | 3.0% | 3.33 | 3.13 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 1 | 200 | 821 | 288 | 87 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 10.6% | 24.4% | 3.0% | 3.33 | 3.13 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Craig Kimbrel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 29.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.25 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 128 | +0.97 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 72 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 70 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 62 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 59 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 58 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 58 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 58 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 55 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 54 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 52 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 51 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 50 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 48 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 45 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 45 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 41 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 40 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 26.2% | 12.3% | 1.50 | 4.76 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |