Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career (MLE) + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | — | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 8 | 4 | 41 | 168 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 50% | 5.1 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.77 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | — | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 28 | 120 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | — | MLB | BAL | — | — | 69 | 288 | 63 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 21.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 2.83 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 4 | 41 | 168 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 50% | 5.1 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.77 | 4.32 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 20 | 200 | 826 | 128 | 84 | 20 | 50% | 5.1 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.77 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Player 842191 (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 82 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 78 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 74 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 71 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 70 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 70 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 69 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 69 |
| Justin Topa R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 68 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 68 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 67 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 67 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 66 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 66 |
| Tyler Beck R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 39 | +0.70 | 2.52 | 137 | 65 |
| Daniel Federman R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.34 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 119 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 65 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 65 |
| Steven Bruce R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | .300 | 3.62 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 94 | -0.08 | 3.62 | 148 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 1.15 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |